NFL Quarterbacks 2021: A Comparative Statistical Analysis

It has been a remarkable NFL offseason and, as usual, all the action seems to revolve around the one position every football fan and pundit claims to know and understand above all others, the quarterback.

And yet, the truth of the matter is that the value of a QB is over-estimated at almost every turn by everyone who matters (and almost all of those who don’t) in the world of college and pro football. There is not team sport in the world that boasts a larger number of players per team as football. A major league baseball team has a roster that is just under half the size of a football team. An MLS roster carries 30 players but not all dress for each game. NBA rosters have 12 dressed players per game. NHL teams dress 20 players per game. So why is the quarterback, who represents 1.8% of the size of his respective roster, so generally regarded as the single most important player in any team sport?  That is a question that may not have an answer that can be found outside of the boundaries of an emotional assessment.

There are 2 undeniable truths about the quarterbacks today. One, the rules of the game today make QB play easier now that it ever was before, not that it is easy, regardless. Two, quarterbacks today are better than they have ever been. Go back and look at the statistics of the great QBs of the 70s. The only one whose stats look even average by today’s standards is Roger Staubach, although his completion percentage falls about 8 points below the league standard now.

There are also a lot of half-truths, myths and downright mistakes in how nearly everyone judges today’s quarterbacks. There is such a massive surge to pile on and declare first who is a “loser” and who is a “winner” that the careers of most NFL quarterbacks are almost pre-judged in the quickness to put a label on them. Certainly Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky could attest to that. And, god forbid, if you ever pay a quarterback more than he is perceived to deserve (Kirk Cousins) he can never be good enough no matter how great he plays. Until he wins 5 or 6 Super Bowls.

I believe that the single biggest mistake that NFL teams make is to judge too early on their first round picks or to pass on viable mid-level quarterbacks to chase the first round unicorn every few years. The belief seems to be that one of only two methods will work to win a championship……build up a juggernaut while your new and pretty good QB is still under his rookie contract (see Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson) or spend exorbitantly on your deserving QB and HOPE he can deliver everything himself with the group of more affordable teammates you can sign or retain after paying him, such as with Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers or Atlanta and Matt Ryan. Ryan’s offense was often star studded but the Falcons were always saddled with a bad defense. What I am suggesting is why not try the third rail? Which would be namely to pay a reasonable amount of money to a mid-level starting quarterback, especially one your peers gave up on too quickly, like the above mentioned Mariota and Trubisky, or someone like Teddy Bridgewater, and build a better overall team around them. The answer to that, as always, is because the fans won’t stand for it and the owner usually just acts like a fan, also.

A quarterback can only go so far on his talent alone. And we often have no idea how much or little talent that QB has before we give up on him after 2 or 3 years. Or, in the case of Josh Rosen, one year. Two or three years spent behind a porous, disjointed offensive line. Two or three years handing off to an undersized running back who was drafted in round 6 because running backs have no value anymore. Two or three years passing to a blocking tight end and a number one receiver who would be a 2 or a 3 on a good team and his fellow collection of Wide Receiver also rans or never-weres. All while playing in an offense designed by a guy who might be great in the future but is learning on his first head coaching contract. And yet, somehow, this is all the quarterback’s fault. Just like it is always the QB who gets too much credit when the team wins.

 

All of this lead in leads me squarely to my point. Namely that the QBs that are generally perceived as bad are not really, from a stats perspective, much worse than those who are perceived to be good or great. The two most telling statistics separating the great/good QBs from their lesser brethren is in the number of TD passes and the ratio of TDs to interceptions. But, what is far more likely to separate them in most people’s view is an emotional and visceral reaction to a person that has almost nothing to do with their actual talent. Yes, they “eye” test does have its merits. Like in adjudging relative arm strength. It does not take a genius to notice that Aaron Rodgers can drop a 60 yard pass into the waiting arms of a sprinting receiver with what seems to be barely a flick of the wrist. While conversely noting that Tua Tagavailoa looks like he is winding up with all his strength (ala Tim Tebow, another lefty) to throw a 22 yard bullet pass over the middle. And yet both of them have completion percentages above 67% and had they thrown the same amount of passes in 2021, would have been within about 400 yards passing of each other over the length of the season.

The emotional perspective argument holds less water, however. Take as an example two players, Rob Gronkowski and Jay Cutler. Cutler was perceived throughout his career as being spoiled, soft, whiny and often injured. All mainly because of his perceived attitude. Gronk, on the other hand, is lauded as a warrior and a tough guy, mainly because he comes off as a happy go lucky lunkhead. And yet, Gronkowski has played in a little under 81% of his team’s games over his career. Jay Cutler played in 84% of his team’s games over the span of his career. Emotional perception. It’s often wrong. However, it is what is most often used by fans and sports media personalities as the fall-back position when trying to compare players against each other, especially when the players played in different eras. In fact, it seems to be the key component used to judge across eras. In other words, an older person usually has an emotional attachment to, say, Michael Jordan, and thus automatically knee jerks his/her response when comparing Jordan to contemporary players with an automatic, “He’s the GOAT!”

I feel that given the differing strategies teams employ and the varying levels of talent the teams have, the best way to compare individual players at the same position is to extrapolate their statistics, putting them on the same plane of comparison. In other words, if Quarterback A threw for 4100 yards but only played in 14 games, but Quarterback B threw for 4500 yards but played all 17 games, obviously A throws for more per game. Percentages and ratios are helpful in this type of statistical comparison, as well. A two to one touchdown to interception ratio remains the same whether the QB in question throw 28 TDs or 16. Of course, the larger sample size tends to suggest more consistency long term. Sometimes, even statistical waters get muddy.

What I have attempted, then, is to determine who was 2021’s best Quarterback, STATISTICALLY, using extrapolated numbers, in order to give insight as to what to expect this year. This proved to be a little difficult in certain cases as some who will be starting this year played very little last year or were starters last year and lost their jobs due to whim, injury or poor performance. The latter category consisted basically of Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton (teammates with Winston this year) and Sam Darnold. Among those who played little last year as backups but who will now likely start are the aforementioned Mariota and Trubisky, Trey Lance, who will supplant Garoppolo in San Francisco, and the winner of the Drew Lock/Geno Smith (both of whom started 3 games last year) starter derby in Seattle. Plus, because Garoppolo re-signed with the 49ers, we will see 11 starts for Jacoby Brissett, as well. Not to mention that many believe that rookies Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett may end up starting in Atlanta and Pittsburgh, respectively. Very little info could be accurately gleaned from last years limited starts among this group of players.

Not mentioned in the above paragraph also is the Deshaun Watson saga, but at least with him, there is a track record of several years as a starter and I do look at his 2020 stats as a comparison point to the other QBs.

The method: I divided the stats into 10 categories that I deemed to be most important in covering the widest variety of types of a quarterback’s comparative strengths and weaknesses. Overall passing yards (covers the coaching style along with the QB’s skill at achieving said style effectively), winning percentage (for those tied to the winners/losers argument), total TD passes thrown (effective scoring), interceptions thrown (ball possession and accuracy), the ratio between those two (which has been massively important as the best dividing line between great and good throughout the years), yards per attempt (indirectly, arm strength), yards per completion (arm strength or receiver speed, if you want to be cheeky), yards per game (same as overall yards), number of completions (accuracy and efficiency of managing the offense) and lastly, completion percentage (accuracy), which is another big dividing line between good and mediocre. Then I compared the numbers for each against the others and assigned a score, from 1-32 (worst to best) for each category to get an aggregate score, which was then divided by 10 to get a category average score, which is the final statistical comparison rating for each.

The Results:

I separated the scores into 3 categories…..those who finished above 18 points on average I consider to be the elite. Anyone who finished in the 10 - 17.99 score range are the ones who would be considered solid starters, especially those in the top half of that group. And the dividing line was clear because the lowest score in the elite group was 18.3 and the highest score in the solid group was 16. The scores generally tended to be close between consecutive players anywhere on the list, but the same clear dividing line occurred between the last player in the solids group and those in the bottom group, which I would call either the unproven or those who need to be backups, whose highest score, 7.95, was fully 2 points plus below the lowest score in the middle group.

 

The Elite 13

I know all of you will be shocked to learn that, statistically at least, 44 year old Tom Brady was the NFL’s best quarterback in 2021. But, equally shocking, perhaps, was that 37 year old Aaron Rodgers also was. On a visceral level, we all know they are great. The surprise is that they tied and also that Rodgers is largely maligned by the "winners" crowd while Brady is their poster child. They both scored 26.6 points as their average across the ten categories. Brady’s worst categories were yards per completion and interceptions and he finished in the top half of the league in ALL categories, finishing first in overall yards, TDs, completions and yards per game, much of which reflects overall team offensive strategy and his competence in making that strategy work effectively.

Rodgers finished first in interceptions (a ridiculous 4 in sixteen games), which of course put him first in TD/INT ratio (a whopping 9.25-1, doubling Kirk Cousins 2nd place ratio!) and also in winning percentage, as the Packers were 13-3 in his 16 starts. Despite the playoff failures, that record alone is a testament to Rodgers, as the Packers overall talent at other positions is in the middle range as compared to other teams. And yes, this can be blamed on his contract to an extent.

Not surprisingly, last year’s Super Bowl QBs, Joe Burrow (25.45) and Matthew Stafford (24.95) finished a respectable 4th and 5th on the list. Both were mainly dragged down by their respective number of INTs thrown. What might surprise you is who finished above them as third best QB in the league. No, it wasn’t Mahomes. Or Herbert. Nor Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. It was none other than Dak Prescott (25.5). Dak’s numbers were steady all across the board in the mid to hi 20s, except for his yards per completion which netted him a below league average score of 15 in that category.

What also might surprise you is that Kyler Murray (24.15) ALSO finished higher ranked than either Mahomes or Herbert. Kyler’s scores, like Prescott’s, were steady across the entire scope and above league average in all 10 categories. His best categories were completion percentage and yards per pass attempt, which both reflect throwing accuracy.

Before we continue with the elite category, I'd like to interject the chicken - egg conundrum into play. Of the 13 QBs in the statistically elite category, eleven of them played on teams with winning records last year. Only Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins did not. I don't know what that says about the Vikings chances, but considering that the Broncos were 7-7 last year with Bridgewater behind center, the only thing that might hold them back this year with Russell taking over is the ridiculous strength of the AFC West division itself.

That said, team record reflects the quality of the QB to an extent, but it is NOT the end all/be all of determining how good or bad is the quarterback in question. A team that is really good overall can make a QB who is merely solid also look elite. As I have argued elsewhere, Tom Brady was, essentially, at Mac Jones' level as a QB during his first few years in the league but won 3 championships during that time because he played on the best overall team and for the best coach in the game. People tend to forget that there was a loooooooong stretch in the middle of Brady's career during which he didn't win any Super Bowls and a majority of people thought his time had passed. Much in the same way they talk about Aaron Rodgers now. Later in his career, Brady was, generally, the best QB in the league and likely elevated lesser Patriots and Bucs teams to championships. But even then, let's not forget that he also benefited from playing a Rams team that could only muster 3 points in a terrible Super Bowl and a Falcons team that suffered from the worst coaching meltdown in playoff history. How Dan Quinn continued to be an NFL head coach for years after that game is beyond me. Take note, Cowboys fans……you better pray that Jerry-world has the sense to hire Sean Payton if McCarthy ends up being fired and keep Dan Quinn where he belongs, as a defensive coordinator. My point is, no matter how great a QB you are, it is still a team game.

Now that I have digressed…….following Kyler Murray we get to Mahomes (23.9), Herbert and Cousins (22.9 each) at 7 and tied for 8th, respectively. Yep, sorry to disappoint you folks, but Kirk Cousins IS that good. Overpaid, perhaps, but damn good despite his team's many disappointments. He finished second to Rodgers in the very telling TD/INT ratio category. The only thing bringing down his score is completion percentage (still a very respectable 66.3%) and winning percentage, which reflects more on overall team quality.

Justin Herbert, as we have all noticed, is very, very good at a very early stage in his career. This is the scouting Holy Grail, the first round QB that starts immediately and succeeds equally as immediately. His only drawbacks statistically are the number of interceptions and his team's 9-8 record. He finished second to Brady in three categories….. yards, its kissing cousin, yards per game, and completions. His interception numbers were poor and his completion percentage is average, but he is, after all, a second year QB with TONS of upside.

Patrick Mahomes, much like Brett Favre (but way better!), is a gunslinger. Actually, Mahomes is more of an improviser, which is reflected in his poorest categories, completion percentage and number of interceptions thrown. Those numbers also affected his other lower category, yards per completion, which is genuinely shocking for a guy throwing to Kelce and Tyreek Hill all season!

Our last two quarterbacks with scores in the 20s are Derek Carr (21.7) at 9 and Jimmy Garoppolo (20.27) at 10. Jimmy G surprised me a bit……I have always thought of him as being in the solid starter category, a guy who will win games on a good team and could even win a Super Bowl on the right team. The kind of QB that I think teams should try to go middle ground with to win. But, his numbers are actually quite good when compared to his NFL peers. His overall yards and TD numbers are low, but that is a reflection of his team's offensive mindset and strategy. His completion percentage is high and his yards per completion tops the league, with yards per attempt second. And this is a guy who will back up this year with a heavily incentive laden contract. That is just crazy, especially when you consider that Seattle, in particular, and other teams, as well, could really use an upgrade at QB. I guess a trade partner just couldn’t be found and the 49ers confidence in Trey Lance as a starter is a little shaky.

Derek Carr is one of those guys much like Matt Stafford, who, for years, put up stellar numbers but was disregarded as "not a winner" because his team was not a winner. They can't say that about Stafford anymore, but they will continue to say it about Carr regardless of how good he is because that is just the thoughtless, casual way sports fans and pundits view the world. Carr's biggest statistical drawback is TDs, interceptions and the all-important ratio between them. He was 6th in passing yards and completions last season and 5th in completion percentage. All while navigating an impossibly chaotic team situation due to Jon Gruden's bigotry and Henry Rugg's toxic stupidity and leading the Raiders to the playoffs. Yeah, sure, he's not a "winner".

Last on the elites list are Russell Wilson (19.4) and Josh Allen (18.3). Wilson missed 3 games to injury and Geno Smith proved remarkably capable as a backup, which attests to Pete Carroll's coaching ability because the overall team wasn't that great. So much so that Smith, a true reclamation project if anyone has ever seen one, will be Seattle’s new starter this season. Russell finished high in the accuracy categories……interceptions, TD/INT ratio and yards per attempt and completion. And yet, somehow, his completion percentage was middle of the league. Go figure. Welcome to Denver, Mr. Russell. At least this year you get to navigate football's toughest division with a team that isn't the worst in THAT division.

Josh Allen is everybody's next great superstar QB, largely on the strength of his epic playoff game performance at Kansas City last year and his remarkable improvement since he was drafted in 2018. He basically became a different player altogether after his second season in the NFL. That said, he is still at the bottom of the elite class based on last year's overall performance. His statistical story is sort of the opposite of Russell Wilson's. Allen's completion percentage is low compared to his peers, as are his yards per attempt and completion. And he threw a lot of interceptions last year, too. Not entirely unexpected when you slinging the ball around in Buffalo in the winter, even though it sure doesn't seem to affect his cold weather counterpart, Aaron Rodgers.

The Solid Starters

Did you notice who was absent in the elite group above? A guy that everyone believes is elite and has already won a league MVP award. Yep, that guy…..Lamar Jackson.

Admittedly, one of the weaknesses of my analysis is that it doesn't take into account rushing yards. Which puts a large part of Mr. Jackson's game in the dust bin of this analysis. Probably not fair, but if we access him KNOWING this, as analysts and/or actual NFL front office professionals, his value is obvious. All of that said, we will get to Lamar Jackson in a moment.

At the top of the solid starter list (and thus a prime candidate to move up in the future) is New England's surprising 2021 rookie, Mac Jones (16.0). He benefitted from a high completion percentage (possibly aided by a simplified rookie offensive package), a good record and decent interception numbers. Tossing the record aside, the numbers indicate a high level game manager with enough savvy to take other statistical categories up while still keeping negatives under control as he learns the nuances of the NFL game. Sort of like that guy who played QB for the Patriots for, like, forever. He turned out pretty good, if I remember correctly.

The next guy up is one who will NOT be suiting up in 2022, unless someone desperate for a starter attempts to lure him out of retirement. That would be old long name himself, Ben Roethlisberger (15.07) . Yeah, despite all of the jabs about how he can't throw a pass longer than 10 yards anymore, old Ben actually did pretty well last year. Yes, his yards per attempt (3rd worst) and per completion (worst) sucked, but he still threw enough completions to finish 6th overall in that category and his yards and yards per game were both solidly in the middle of the league. Plus, while he didn't throw many TDs, he threw even fewer interceptions, so his ratio was also solidly in the middle.

Next up is a guy that I have always liked and never understood why others don't, Teddy Bridgewater (14.85). His biggest drawback, which, as usual, reared its' head last year is that he always seems to end up right around .500, record wise. Early on in his career, this could be on him, but now he seems to consistently end up on teams that use him as a one year interim starter while rebuilding a mediocre team. Sort of like Jacoby Brissett and also where it seems that Carson Wentz's career is heading. Unlike Wentz, however, Bridgewater's talent seems to lie in being a solid game manager type. He had a good TD/INT ratio, with not so many TDs thrown but also a miniscule 7 interceptions in 14 games last year and also was in the top half of the league in completion percentage. He really should be starting somewhere and it might end up that way since he is backing up a QB in Tagavailoa that he was statistically superior to last year on a Dolphins team that has high expectations.

And now we get to Lamar Jackson, who finished just .03 points on average behind Bridgewater. Jackson (14.82) missed 5 games last season but when his numbers are extrapolated, he finishes with respectably high numbers in the four passing yardage categories. And, if you add rushing numbers to his passing totals, he was responsible for more yards gained than any QB in the league not named Brady, Herbert, Mahomes or Allen. The issue at hand is, basically, scoring and ball security. He threw an abysmal 13 interceptions in 12 games and fumbled six times in addition, losing 3 of those. Meanwhile, he only threw 16 TDs. While both those stats represent a huge drop-off from Jackson's typical numbers, they do land, at least in 2021, in Tyler Heinecke territory. That is not where you would expect them to be for a man who will likely be paid elite QB money very soon.

The negatives I seem to have expressed about Jackson are largely based on positive expectations. I will seem downright positive about the next QB for the same reason, except his expectations are (wrongly, in my opinion) negative. That would be one Carson Wentz (14.8). I will sum up Wentz's year last year in two sentences……solid QB play, not a ton of yards, great ball security, marred by one game. Boom, you're outta here. Yes, that last game against Jacksonville was terrible. And yes, I will give the "winners" crowd a break on this one. He sucked out loud in a game that would have put the Colts in the playoffs. But, but…….Wentz threw only 7 interceptions last year in 17 starts. That tied him for 2nd fewest in the league with Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. He threw 27 TDs, 10th best in the league. Those are elite QB numbers. But, but again……..his yardage numbers and completion percentage were both below average. So, if this is the Wentz you get, you are getting a solid game manager and likely, because of his maligned reputation, someone you could get on the cheap and take the third rail option to success with. He is not nearly as bad as his reputation suggests and he is better based on last year's stats than either Matt Ryan, who replaces him in Indy, or Jalen Hurts, who replaced him in Philly last year. But, you might say that is only based on one year. Go back and look at his career stats. The anomaly year in his career was the last year in Philadelphia, but, of course, that is the only thing that everyone remembers. That and the final game last year. He is the poster child for 'what have you done for me lately'. His career numbers are pretty solid and I think the he was a steal for Washington. And, unlike Teddy Bridgewater, he will get the opportunity to start and see if my theory can be proven with a pretty good Commanders team.

The group of QBs that I am writing about near the top if the solids category are all, more or less, interchangeable. From Bridgewater, at 14.85, down to the next two on the list, Jared Goff (14.67) and Matt Ryan (14.65), there is only 0.2 points separating 5 quarterbacks.

Goff is a paradox wrapped in a QB. His first 2 years as a starter in LA were great and the team was great. Then, there was a marked statistical decline in the Rams performance the next 2 years, and in Goff's in year 4. Apparently, the Rams felt correctly that it was on him, traded him away to Detroit for Matt Stafford and the rest, as they say, is history. Goff actually had a decent season last year. His extrapolated yards were a hair under 4000, his TD/Int ratio was good. The only drawbacks were record (hey, it's Detroit!) and yards per attempt and completion. The Lions are a team purportedly on the rise and a lot of that will depend on his continuing the good aspects while improving the yards per stats. And maybe throwing a few more TDs wouldn't hurt.

Matt Ryan is being looked at as this year's Stafford. Rescued from purgatory to make a good team great, et al. I am going to be honest here…….I am a lifelong Falcons fan and I LOVE Matt Ryan. But he was on some damn good Falcons teams in the past and could not get them over the hump. Ninety percent of that is on the coaching, but what makes this situation in Indianapolis any different, especially considering his advancing age? Then again, last year's Falcons squad probably overachieved in going 7-10. Ryan didn't throw many interceptions, but he also didn't throw many TDs, either. His yards per game and completion percentage were decent. The jury is definitely out, but if the Colts make the playoffs (a likelihood) and the Falcons don't (an even better likelihood), guess who is going to be a Colts fan for the post-season? Me, that's who. Because as every Falcons fan knows, the coaching and management in Atlanta wasted the talents of the best QB in team history and I think Matt Ryan is owed a Lombardi trophy! Don't you?

We are halfway through the solids portion of the table and we are getting into a territory filled with a lot of question marks. Starting with Ryan Tannehill (13.75). He has had a weird career. He started out as one of those guys that a team gives up on too quickly. Then he went to Tennessee to replace another of those guys, Marcus Mariota. Basically, Tannehill generally is a solid game manager who keeps possession and doesn't make mistakes and lets that big hoss behind him, Derrick Henry, shoulder the offensive load. But last season, after a stellar 2020, Ryan threw 12 less TDs and doubled his interceptions, which took him from Cousins territory (4.7 to 1 TD/Int ratio) and down into Daniel Jones' neighborhood at 1.5 to 1. And now people are wondering if it is time to put Tannnehill out to pasture in favor of rookie Malik Willis. Tennessee is a solid playoff team every year that is getting a bit old. I feel it would behoove the Titans to see if they can get a return to form (and to the field) for Derrick Henry and see if they can put on one more run at things before they pack it in on Tannehill in favor of Willis.

Next up is, debatably, the biggest question mark of all, Jameis Winston (13.65*). Famous Jameis is sometimes more INfamous than famous, for various reasons, some of which even have to do with his play on the field. In his last season in Tampa, he threw for over 5000 yards and threw 33 touchdowns. But he also threw a colossal 30 interceptions and the Bucs finished 7-9. Hello, Tom Brady. Interceptions and the all-important ratio have been the biggest bugaboos of Winston's career. And then came last year…..as the Saints starting QB in year one ADB, Jameis started out like a champ for 7 games and then got hurt and was out for the rest of the season. So, in studying his numbers, the sample size is too small to be truly meaningful. Thus the asterisk above. But, extrapolated, his seven game TD and interceptions totals become 34 and 7. And the team was 5-2 when he went out. The passing yards, however, were miniscule. A full season rendering of his yards only puts him just above 2800 passing yards, which would put him between Lamar Jackson and Davis Mills, two players who only played 12 and 11 games respectively. The point is, if the Saints can get something between the Winston of 2019 and the one of 2021, they will be happy. It is just too hard to predict based on last year's sample size. By the way, as an interesting side note, the NFC South will feature Tom Brady vs. 3 first round picks at QB, two of whom (Winston and Mariota) were picked #1 and #2 in the same draft (2015) and are both reclamation products now. I guess we could call Baker Mayfield a reclamation, too.

Jalen Hurts (12.95), you are next. On the one hand, being where he is as a late 2nd round pick is pretty good. On the other hand, the jury is still out on his ceiling, but don't tell that to the Eagles fans who are touting him like the 2nd coming. Hurts scored well in the yards per catch/attempt categories and in total interceptions, but that is not surprising considering that he finished near the bottom of the league in completions (and attempts, although that is not one of the measurable categories used here). Plus, he is a definite running threat in the mold of Jackson and Allen. And not for nothing, the Eagles did make the playoffs last year. Hurts definitely has some upside and I could see him really breaking out, but frankly, he is not yet as good as Wentz, whom the Eagles gave up on too early.

Next is another QB that people are trying to decide on, probably too early, as usual. That would be Tua Tagavailoa (12.52). To be fair, though, much like Baker Mayfield with the Browns last year, Tua's Dolphins are an above average team. He isn't trying to make hay on a team that was 3-14 (although the Dolphins were 5-11 the year before they drafted him) for several years before he arrived. I think both he and Mayfield get some credit for the success of their franchises. Tagavailoa is good at the game manager skills of completion percentage and overall completions, but he just doesn't throw for many yards or scores, although he also doesn't throw many interceptions, either. The biggest question in Miami is that given the expectations, especially after adding Tyreek Hill, are they going to give their QB a quick yank if he or the team start poorly, considering they have another NFL starter (Teddy Bridgewater) on the roster?

Right behind Tua are two of the NFL’s most surprising starters from last year, Davis Mills (12.1) and Taylor Heinecke (11.07). Both are metro Atlanta area football products, born 5 years apart. Mills was a 2021 third round draft pick thrust into the starter’s role due to the Deshaun Watson saga being followed by an injury to Tyrod Taylor in week 2. Under those circumstances, Mills actually acquitted himself quite well, with a lack of a lot of yards per game (he didn’t start 2 games that he finished), yards per attempt and completion being his only real drawback. That, and the atrocious record of the team, which went 2-9 in his starts, of course. He had much lower scrutiny than another well-known 3rd rounder, Russell Wilson did in his first year, but Davis Mills might be a sleeper keeper.

Heinecke also played well after a season (and it turns out, career) ending injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick in week one last season. Taylor had only one career start going into the 2021 season. While Mills had some high and low numbers, Heinecke was more consistently in the low mid-range across the board. His biggest drawbacks were that his interceptions were high, which made his ratio poor and he didn’t throw for a ton of yards per game. His other numbers put him right about league average or just below, which is not bad for a guy who was an undrafted free agent and never was really expected to be more than a backup for any team. Based on this, I don’t know if I’d want to hand him the keys to a franchise (and the Commanders DID take the keys away from him!), but you know if you have to that he probably won’t embarrass himself or the team.

Down to the last two ‘solids’ and that might be stretching the definition a bit. Baker Mayfield (10.3) is a reclamation project who quickly won the starting job on his new team. And Carolina might just catch the wave of one of those every other year players. In 2018 and 2020 combined, Baker was a 53 TD, 22 interception QB, and 2018 was his rookie year! In ‘19 and ‘21, he was, frankly, not so good. He only gets a bump up into the bottom of this category based on his scores in the yards per attempt and completion categories. The rest of his scores were in the 7 range, although the team record and his yards per game were a little better.  Mayfield is just one small step from backup status.

One notch above him is Daniel Jones (10.45). This is definitely put up or shut up time for him. Jones’ BEST year was his rookie season, when he took the starting reins from Eli Manning. Actually, the overall QB numbers between the two of them were pretty good that season and the Giants still finished 4-12, so that was obviously another case of the QB playing above the level of a bad team and it still not being enough to elevate the overall team performance. Over the next two seasons, his completion percentage steadily improved but his TD and interception numbers regressed and the ratio suffered. Throughout his career, he’s never been a big yards per game guy and maybe his biggest issue is not a statistic, but his ability to stay on the field. Maybe an improved line and a healthy Saquon Barkley might improve things. If so, then Jones needs to take advantage by staying healthy first himself and then maybe the numbers will come. Or he will be replaced by Tyrod Taylor this year and be looking for a new gig next year.

Mayfield and Jones (man, that sound like a law firm!) are in the solid starter category barely and won’t be next year if their downward trends continue.

 

The Rest-Unproven or Backup?

Sam Darnold (7.9) is the ‘class’ of this group, with an average score a full 2 points above everyone else left here. He looked like a change of scenery was all he needed out of the gate last year, starting out like a house on fire, leading Carolina to a 3-0 start and then playing well in a close game 4 loss to Dallas. Then, he just fell off the face of the earth, then had an IR stint due to a shoulder injury and so Carolina eventually felt the need to try both    P. J. Walker for a start and then sign and start the moribund Cam Newton for 5 games. Darnold WAS the starter for 4 of the Panther’s 5 wins last season. His biggest drawbacks were all about accuracy and scoring…..a low completion percentage and too many interceptions thrown with too few TDs to counter-balance them.  All that aside, he has now gotten to the point where he has been replaced as a starter by Baker Mayfield and relegated to a backup role until an injury or failure befalls another NFL QB. It is kind of a shame because we may never see Darnold start a game for a stable team that can win. He might be good in that situation.

Next up are Chicago’s two starters from last year, Andy Dalton (5.85*) and Justin Fields (5.5). Fields is the future and his season last year is the ‘rookie starter on a bad team’ tale in microcosm.  He still has a few years until he reaches the Darnold place and expectations are tempered in Chicago for at least another year until cap space is cleared. That said, hopefully he won’t completely lose his confidence as he takes his licks on what may be the NFL’s worst team this season. Fields only high category last year was in yards per completion, so he can sling it, at least. He also finished highest among the three main rookie draft picks (the other two being Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence) from last year in this category, but Mac Jones and Davis Mills whipped them all by comparison, and Mills was on a Texans squad that was just as bad or worse than Field’s Bears team was.

Dalton is on the downside of a career that has actually been pretty damn good. His numbers, much like Jameis Winston’s, comprise a little too small a sample size to make much from them for this comparison.  Funny how this year has one of them backing up the other in New Orleans. I extrapolated the numbers for Dalton, but felt I couldn’t give him a full score for his won-loss record. He was 3-3 as a starter on a pretty bad team, but even if I gave him a .500 record score of around 15 points it still would have still put his average at around 7.4, which would keep him in the same category where he already was, regardless. Either way it was a wash.

Now we get to the last two, Zach Wilson (4.95) and Trevor Lawrence (4.85), who scored within .10 points of each other. The main basic difference in their scores is that Wilson scored above average in two categories, interceptions and yards per completion, versus one above average category for Lawrence, which was completions. In Lawrence's defense, the fact that he started all 17 Jags games in his rookie is a plus that doesn't add in here, but is a good indicator of his possible future improvement. I believe Lawrence will get the longer initial pass to improve because of the team situation in Jacksonville to start his career. Low expectations have their reward. Being on the Jets is going to put the pressure on Wilson much earlier, which means he will be Darnold, part 2, unless he is exceptional.

 

The OTHERS:

This is where things get sticky. Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Seattle, San Francisco and Cleveland will all have new starters this year. We know for a fact that Cleveland will actually have two, due to the Deshaun Watson 11 game suspension. Any of the other 4 might, as well, dependent on various factors.

Atlanta will start the season with a reclamation project, former 1st round draft pick Marcus Mariota, taking the snaps. His last gig as a starter was in 2019 when he started 6 games for Tennessee before being supplanted by newly acquired Ryan Tannehill, who replaced him in the third quarter of a shutout loss to the Broncos. Mariota wasn't terrible during his tenure as the Titans starter, but he didn't seem to live up to the expectations of being a first round pick. He has never been a big yards per game guy and at times seems to throw too few TDs and too many interceptions comparatively, although at the time he was replaced he had thrown 7 TDs in 6 games with only 2 interceptions and had good ratio numbers during his first two seasons as a starter, as well. Is this a resurrection? Maybe, but 3rd round pick Desmond Ridder (who, like Russell Wilson had nominal 1st round talent and was a steal in the 3rd round) is waiting in the wings if Mariota fails.

Pittsburgh is in a remarkably similar position to Atlanta except their drafted QB was a first round pick and their team has a decent shot at the playoffs no matter who plays. Mitch Trubisky also lost his starting job in a similar fashion to Mariota but under much flimsier pretexts, which tells you that Chicago is a bit more pressure packed a situation than what occurs in Tennessee. In fact, Nick Foles was so bad as the replacement that Trubisky eventually won back the starter's job and even got the Bears into the playoffs. He got thanked for that by being shown the door, after which he spent last year as Josh Allen's backup in Buffalo. He is definitely worth a second look as a starter, as there was absolutely nothing wrong with how he played in Chicago other than that he didn't throw for a ton of yards. I think Pittsburgh is in pretty good hands, but I guess it is always possible that Mitch could be supplanted again, this time by his first round draft pick backup, Kenny Pickett.

Seattle is definitely in rebuild mode after trading Russell Wilson to Denver. One of the pieces the Seahawks got back was Drew Lock, who had started in Denver. He went against way back reclamation project Geno Smith (remember him?) who actually acquitted himself quite well while filling in for the injured Wilson in 2021. Neither has been stellar as an NFL starter and even with his 5 TD/1 INT ratio from last year, Smith has still thrown more interceptions in his career than he has TDs. Lock hasn't been much better than that and Geno won the starter's job for now. It's kind of hard to root against the guy, you know?

San Francisco spent a ton of draft capital last year to move up and take a very raw but very talented small college QB, Trey Lance, who, purportedly, has a Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes combo skill set. He sat for a year behind Garoppolo and was anointed as starter for his second season before a single preseason snap was taken. Then a strange thing happened. The 49ers could not find an adequate trade partner to take Garoppolo off their hands and so after months of speculating just where he would go, it turns out he isn’t going anywhere. He signed an incentive laden 1 year contract to remain with San Francisco as back up and insurance policy. We have no idea what Lance may turn out like, but this is a playoff team with anything like even average QB play. Probably best for the Niners that they kept   Jimmy G after all.

And now we get down to Cleveland. Deshaun Watson was signed to a very lucrative deal by the Browns despite his off the field problems. My only statement on him personally is that knowing what he has done and been accused of makes it very hard to root for him as a fan. But, in the confines of this report, he is a VERY good quarterback. His first four years in the league were elite in the level of play. His career TD/INT ratio is just under 3 to 1. He threw for almost 5000 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 interceptions in the last season he played for a laughably bad Texans team that finished 4-12. In fact, having taken Watson's 2020 numbers and doing an extrapolation stretch by one game (to account for the new for 2021 17 game schedule) and then comparing them to where they would fit among the 2021 statistics showed me that Watson would have scored a 26.95 and would have been rated above the Brady/Rodgers duo that leads this analysis. Once again, this proves that a great QB cannot save a bad team.

But, because of the 11 game personal conduct suspension that Watson has to serve, Jacoby Brissett will be the Brown’s primary starter for this season. Brissett is the ideal back up/spot starter type. He acquits himself well and usually keeps his team in games. His TD/INT ratio is a respectable 2 to 1 for his career, but his won/loss record isn’t great and his completion percentage usually hovers around 60%, which is on the low side in the modern NFL. So, basically, what you will have is, basically, last year’s Baker Mayfield for 11 games and THEN Watson’s Browns career will begin. By that time, based on their schedule, Cleveland might be, at best, 4-7. The funny thing is that its’ likely those potential 4 wins will come in the first 4 or 5 games, so the Browns will look like world beaters coming out of the gate.

 

So what is the point of all this analysis? Ultimately, it is my attempt to try to convince some football fans to look into the numbers a little more and look away some from the emotional assessment of the players based on the madcap hot take sports talk guys who are always trying to spark controversy and are often wrong as wrong can be.  

For the most part, the numbers do show that the guys that everyone thinks are great generally ARE great. The bigger issue is that some guys who MIGHT be great are set adrift before they ever have a chance, when their performance is severely hampered by the talent bereft teams they get drafted by. Or, like in Teddy Bridgewater’s case, they get injured once and the decision seems to be made that, once injured, they are always to be questioned. And once set adrift, there is rarely ever a return.

Part of what inspired my decision to try to quantify what makes a good QB, sans eye testing and assessing un-assessible “intangibles”, is that a fascinating thing is happening this year. Quarterbacks who were set adrift, Mariota and Trubisky, are getting a second chance. And Wentz, who the league keeps trying to kill, is getting another chance with a potential playoff team. For that matter, Trubisky’s Steelers are also a solid playoff contender, as well. And while Mariota is in a definite rebuild situation in Atlanta, this season represents an interesting opportunity to test my third rail hypothesis. Unless, of course, team management (in Pittsburgh, especially, where first round pick Kenny Pickett waits in the wings) gets squeamish after the first bit of struggle by their team and pulls the plug. Thanks for playing along.