Kirk Cousins vs. Michael Penix, Jr. Is it time for the Falcons to make a change?

While I will be making a statistical comparison within this post, I am starting off by writing what I am "feeling" as an Atlanta Falcons fan. I am feeling two contradictory things. First, I feel that with the offensive talent Atlanta has, they should have a much better record than 3-6. Conversely, I am also feeling that outside of Bijan Robinson and Drake London, maybe Atlanta's offensive talent isn't really living up to the hype. Kyle Pitts has certainly been a disappointment since the start of his sophomore season and Michael Penix has shown flashes but maybe isn't necessarily ready to be the full-time starter. 

And the Falcons still have an opportunity THIS season, even at 3-6. With a remaining game against Carolina, two against New Orleans, one at the New York Jets and one at Phoenix, that is 5 very winnable games out of the remaining 8. Flip one of the remaining three (against the Seahawks, Rams and Bucs, two of the games at home) and the Falcons could potentially be 9-8 and in the playoffs. But for that to work, a switch probably has to be made back to Kirk Cousins at QB.

First, kudos to the first defense of any basic competence that Atlanta has had in years. Yes, there have been a couple of "gorks" this season, notably the losses to Carolina and Miami, but the overall defensive play has been very solid in 2025. 

But, that 30-0 loss to Carolina, despite the score, was not a defensive failure. Atlanta outgained Carolina in every offensive category, despite not having a particularly stellar offensive day. The issue was 3 turnovers (2 INTs and one fumble), one being a pick six and the others giving the Panthers an obscenely short field after either a turnover or a failure to convert on 4th down, necessitated by being down a ton of points late.

Then, the Falcons bounced back and won their next two games to go above .500 at 3-2, before losing the next 4 in row to put them at 3-6.

The other of those two bad losses was the 34-10 debacle against Miami, who were 1-6 coming into the game. Now, Miami did outgain the Falcons and had three 79+ yards TD drives, but they also had three short field drives starting in Falcons' territory. And while the Miami offense did outshine Atlanta's, it wasn't such a huge statistical difference as to account for a 24-point blowout home loss. So again, many points were given up but the defense was actually pretty good. Atlanta did have one turnover (to none for Miami) and basically beat themselves with a lot of penalty yards lost.

In addition, Drake London was out injured and so was Penix, Jr. for that game. Now since I am going to try to make the case for returning to Cousins as the starter, it is worth noting that he was 21/31 for 173 yards, 0TDs and 0 INTs in that game, rusty and without his best receiver. Not great, certainly, but not terrible either. And comparable to many games that Penix has started this season.

Finishing up with the defense, the most recent Falcons' game saw the defense get chewed up to the tune of 244 rushing yards by Jonathan Taylor and 255 passing yards by Daniel Jones, but to be fair, Indianapolis DOES have the statistically best offense in the game. And the Falcons' D held them scoreless for two quarters during the middle of the game. Despite all of the yards, for much of the game, Atlanta held the lead, from late in the first half until late in the 4th quarter. The defense was bending but not breaking, but the offense was not holding up their end. Then, after Indianapolis finally broke through to take the lead, Atlanta's offense woke up and went on a scoring drive of their own, taking back the lead by three. But the Colts kicked a FG to tie, Atlanta's offense went nowhere, and the Colts moved down the field to score the game winning TD in overtime.

The turning point in the game, however, came earlier, when a pass to Kyle Pitts that could easily have been a touchdown fell short of the mark. While Pitts was lambasted for "effort" on the play, but he was double covered and despite that he was also open at the goal line, having run the route well and beaten the two cover men. But the pass was about 2 yards short of being on target. All Pitts failed to do was to have had instantaneous recognition of that and then split and wade through the two defenders who were right behind him in coverage to succeed in getting back to the pass. As it was, the pass doinked off of the helmet of the trailing cornerback. As disappointing as Kyle Pitts sometimes is, this one was not on him.

While no one can guarantee anything, if the Falcons get that TD in the 3rd quarter, the game likely would never have gone to overtime. 

What was lost in all of that game narrative, however, was that Penix, Jr. was 12/28 for 177 yards and 1 TD. And I've noticed a pattern developing with regards to Penix and clutch time situations. Penix has had 3 starts out of his eleven that have gone to overtime. In those three games, Penix has led the Falcons to a late score to tie the game up, but only after a relatively lengthy period of the game where the offense was not moving the ball at all. Then, the Falcons have had the ball first in all three games in overtime and have failed to score a single OT point in any of them. And that, my friends, is actually pretty hard to do. Whether it is coaching, play calling or just nerves on the part of the QB.

Michael Penix, Jr. is largely inconsistent. Up one week, like at New England two weeks ago where he passed 22/37 for 221 yards and 3 TDs without an interception, but still lost. Or his 20/26 for 312 yards 2TDs and 1 INT in a win against Washington. But then his play will be down the next, like his 13/21 for 135 yards in week two at Minnesota (also a win) or 18/36 for 172 yards and an INT in the 30-0 debacle at Carolina.

Yes, it is very early in his career, but what the Falcons were doing with Michael Penix, Jr. initially was the thing that every NFL team should do when a QB is drafted, even in the first round, which is to sit them behind an established starter for a year or two. It works...just look at the stats. But that plan was derailed by an injury to Kirk Cousins. Now what is traditional in the NFL is for a starter to return to their role once they come back from injury, especially if they are playing well. 

Part of the problem, however, was that either Cousins was not entirely forthcoming about being hurt in the second New Orleans game or the Falcons were being circumspect about his injury and wanted him to try to fight through it because they were 6-3 going into the game and 4-0 against their division and essentially running away with the NFC South. 

Whatever it was, Cousins played terribly after the injury for four games before he was benched, in which the Falcons went 1-3 (and they also lost that game at New Orleans, as well) while Cousins threw for 1 TD and 8(!) INTs, although he still was passing for a decent percentage and plenty of yards, as well. So, by the end of that stretch, the Falcons were 7-7 and no longer in charge of the division. But his benching should have been treated like an injury replacement and not like a passing of the torch.

As a side note, Cousins was also always frequently chided throughout his career for not being "clutch" and especially for not winning night games. In week two and three in 2024, to the contrary of that notion, he went 40/58 for 471 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT in two consecutive night games, first beating the eventual Super Bowl champs, Philadelphia on the road and then losing by 5 at home to the previous year's champ, Kansas City. Looked pretty clutch and big time, to me, but what do I know?

And make no mistake, Cousins was VERY good in the first nine games of 2024, before that injury. My favorite statistic of overall QB quality is a very simple one: TD to INT ratio. And Kirk Cousins, throughout his career, has always scored high marks, usually second or third best every year. In general terms, only Aaron Rodgers has consistently bested Cousins in the ratio stat. And it was the thing that failed him after New Orleans that was most noticeable that should have clued everyone into the notion that something was very off at that point.

During the first nine games of 2024, Cousins was a collective 204/295 (69.1% or about 10 percentage points above Penix, Jr.'s completion percentage) for 2328 yards, 17 TDs and 7 INTs. Extrapolate that out to a full 17 game season and he would have passed for 4397 yards, 32 TDs and 13 INTs and he would have been the Comeback Player of the Year in almost any year besides 2024, without a doubt. It would have been impossible to beat Joe Burrow in that year, however.

So, with all of that said, even after the four-game injury debacle, I feel that Cousins should have been reinstated as starter to begin the 2025 season, getting back to what should have been the plan for Penix Jr. all along. And with the trade deadline having passed and Cousins still on the team, I wonder if the Falcons themselves may be having thoughts of putting him back in the fray. Of course, with his contract, it is possible there were simply no takers with a good enough offer for the Falcons to consider trading him.

Part of the problem is that NFL teams all share an unusual common trait, namely that their collective attitude seems to be "if a guy is a first round pick, he must be good, right?". Nothing could actually be further from the truth, especially at the QB position. For this, I will reference myself (Drafting an NFL Quarterback: A 20 year comparison of the drafted QBs by Round.) and note that a first round draft pick at QB is hardly a sure thing. But when a team spends early draft capital on a signal caller, they seem to be unwilling to not let that QB play out the string as long as they can to see if they succeed. All the while ignoring the obvious evidence that quarterbacks tend to get a better fundamental foundation for a solid career by sitting early. 

It even works with those that are pushed too far early, then end up prospering on their second or third team after being benched late in their rookie contract with their organizationally flawed original team, who has finally gotten fed up. Look no further than Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield for prime examples of that story. That year or even half of a year to sit, observe and shed the pressure seems to make a massive difference. And this doesn't even take into consideration those guys (I am looking at you, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love) who are made to wait and then, when finally unleashed, are pretty damn good from their first starts with their original teams.

The issue is, of course, financial. Teams have a four-year rookie contract window where the guy is cheap and they are perpetually trying to size a guy up early and build a team up around him with more expensive, better players at other positions, hoping to snatch a championship before the QB gets super expensive and they have to deconstruct the rosters a bit to pay the QB.

Conversely, anyone NOT drafted in the first round has to consistently prove themselves over and over, no matter how well they play. Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were 4th rounders. Obviously, we all know about Tom Brady. Who, by the way, also waited a year or so as a backup before starting due to Drew Bledsoe's injury. While Brady's play wasn't ever really questioned by the fans, it was a different era. Prescott and Cousins, despite being very high-level starters, have been continuously maligned, quite unfairly, I believe. Mainly because of when they were drafted, even years into their successful careers. As if everyone is still just waiting for the other shoe to drop. And when that doesn't happen, the fans and pundits are seeing shadows in the dark about the two of them.

Now back to the issue at hand with the Falcons. Michael Penix, Jr. is a first round pick and he may be, eventually, worthy of that selection. But right now, honestly, you could make an easy statistical comparison between him and the Falcons previous incumbent QB, the third rounder, Desmond Ridder. 

Ridder was the Falcons' starter for most of the 2023 season, proceeding the year of Penix's selection. He inherited the role because the veteran starters that the team had brought in to mentor him (again, a strategy I wholeheartedly agree with), Marcus Mariota in 2022 and Taylor Heinecke in 2023 were simply not good enough to either keep the job (Mariota) or take it from Ridder (Heinecke). 

Ridder started the final 4 games of 2022 and then 12 of the 17 games the Falcons played in 2023, with Heinecke starting the other 5. So, Desmond Ridder was one game shy of getting a full NFL season's worth of games as Atlanta's starter at QB. In his 16 starts, he passed for 3418 yards or 214 yards per game, with 14 TDs and 11 INTs, completing 307 out of 481 passes, a 63.8 completion percentage. Extrapolate that out one more game to make it a full season and his line looks like this: 

326/511 for 3632 yards, 15 TDs, 12 INTs.

By comparison, Michael Penix, Jr. has started eleven NFL games. His numbers look like this, first for the games played and then extrapolated out to predict a 17-game season:

Eleven starts: 211/360 58.6%, 2544 yards (231.27 yards per game), 12 TDs and 5 INTs

Extrapolated: 326/556 for 3932 yards, 19 TDs 8 INTs

What stands out first is the exact same number of extrapolated completions, 326. Although Ridder uses 45 LESS completions to get there, thus his completion percentage being 5.2 points higher. Also, the difference in yards is exactly 300, meaning basically 18 yards more passing per game for Penix, Jr. Penix, Jr. also has 4 more TD passes and 4 less INTs, but over the course of a 17-game season, that is a somewhat minimal difference. In fact, all of this represents minimal differences between the statistical play of the two of them in most respects. 

Basically, at this point, you are getting the same production out of Michael Penix Jr. as you did out of Desmond Ridder, with both of them starting their careers as starters at almost the exact same point in their individual timelines, late in their respective first seasons. 

And what did Atlanta do with Ridder, the third rounder? They dumped him after that season in favor of a newer model, Michael Penix Jr. Something that they likely won't do with Penix because of his first-round pick status. But what I hope they will recognize is that perhaps he needs a bit more seasoning to be truly ready and revert back to Cousins, giving them a shot to take the team back to the playoffs mainly due to consistency. 

We know that Cousins will keep Atlanta competitive and potentially might help them steal an extra game or two in the last eight. At this point, we can only HOPE that Penix, Jr. can do that. More importantly, Cousins will likely keep them from losing games in which, in reality, they have a competitive advantage, especially with the defense playing so well. 

You could cut relegating Penix, Jr. to the backup role in two ways right now, both equally worthy as reasons. One, you could view it as I do, that the Falcons still have a playoff chance, so why not go with the experienced hand. Or, conversely, even if that doesn't work, it will give Penix that little bit of extra time learning behind the experienced starter that might set him on the path to being completely worthy of his draft position in the future.