Drafting an NFL Quarterback: A 20 year comparison of the drafted QBs by Round.

 

General Observations:

Names like A.J., B.J, D.J, T.J, and J.P. are bad names to have as a QB. Ditch the initials.

There is not really much statistical analysis in this post. We could argue who is better than who, but we all generally know who is good and who isn't. I was more interested in having a lineup of the players based on when they were picked so that it could be easily seen who was worthy of their pick and, essentially, who wasn't. And also, where the sweet spot actually lies for picking a quality starter. It is interesting to note which guys were picked with the same pick in different years and then note their relative career paths. For example, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bradlee Van Pelt were both taken with the 250th pick in consecutive years, 2004 and 2005. Fitzpatrick completed 3072 career passes for 34,990 yards while Van Pelt completed 2 passes (out of 8) for 7 yards in his career. 

I put the first round in order of pick number first, year second. All the other rounds are divided up by year first. Most (but not ALL!) of today's best NFL QBs were first round picks, but the majority of the very best ones were NOT picked first or second overall.

First round QBs are still your best bet for starting and, apparently, scouting has gotten better because first rounders picked in the last few years seem to have a significantly better chance to succeed than many that were picked 10-20 years ago. The question still remains, though, as to whether the first rounders are starters BECAUSE they are first rounders or because they are really better players.

The 4th round, in large part, represents a cutoff point. While Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins are current top-level starters drafted in that round, almost all of the starters from the past 20 years have come from the 3rd round or higher.

Christian Hackenberg is the highest QB drafted in this 20-year sampling to never play a down in an NFL game - Round 2, pick 51 in 2016. Pat White was drafted higher, but played mostly as a WR in his one season (2009), even though he did throw 5 passes, completing none. Conversely, Fitzpatrick had a long and largely productive career as a starter (147 career starts) or highly rated backup after being drafted with the 250th pick in the 7th round of 2005.

Sixty 1st round QBs were picked in the 20 years. 14 of the 60 were #1 picks, with an additional 10 picked at #2 or 3. Ten of the 14 selected with the first pick are having or had successful careers. Two of the 14, JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford did not, although Bradford’s issues had far more to do with fragility. He played passably well when he played. He averaged 3 missed games per year during the 6 years when he was a starter. In other words, picking him at #1 was not a mistake of misreading his talent. Or drive, as was in the case with Russell, who is largely considered, along with Ryan Leaf, as the biggest 1st round QB bust in NFL history. The other 2 of the 14, Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield, are currently playing and the jury is still out on their careers although both seem to be trending down. (In subsequent years since this writing, Mayfield's career has definitely blossomed)

The 10 players picked either 2nd or 3rd overall in the first round are much more of a mixed bag. I think that many of those picks reflect a bit of desperation on the part of teams who needed a QB in a weak QB class but didn’t have that coveted first pick. Players who might have otherwise fallen to later in the draft in a better QB draft class year were grabbed early instead. Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota were all drafted with the 2nd pick in their respective years. The latter two were both signed as second chance reclamation projects this year only to be ultimately replaced at starter during the season by 2022 draft picks.

As for Wentz, I have never understood the animosity towards him. He does seem injury prone, which shortened his 2022 and 2018 seasons, but he has really only had one bad season in the NFL, which was his last one in Philadelphia. He seems to suffer from Jay Cutleritis, in that the fans and pundits just seem to not like him for some reason and therefore he is a “bad QB”. Wentz’s extrapolated averages for his first 4 seasons, which include his rookie campaign (a stats killer, normally): Average of 255 passing yards per game, 29 TDs and 10 INTs per year, passing for a 63% completion percentage. By comparison, his full season in Indianapolis is similar, barring that his yards per game were down to 210, which, it can be argued, is a product of the Colts’ offensive system and the productivity of Jonathan Taylor and his 1811 rushing yards in 2021.

The jury is still out on Zach Wilson, but his tendency to be hurt, say the wrong thing and not take responsibility might be killing his opportunity to remain a starter, particularly in New York. Sounds a little (Geno Smith) familiar, doesn’t it?

The 2nd round is where the fewest QB picks seem to be made, only 20 over the 20 years. It is a mixed bag in terms of QB talent. As if NFL teams are saying, "I didn't get a QB in the 1st round, so I won't bother picking one until the 4th round". If you include this season’s resurrection of the aforementioned Geno Smith (which was foreshadowed in 2021) and are willing to believe it may continue, you could say that 6 of the 20 were/are solid starters (and that includes Colin Kaepernick) and 7 were busts. One of the 7 was Hackenberg, who never even played in a game. The other 7 could be considered busts, as well, because they rarely played at all. The second round DID give us Jimmy Garoppolo, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr and Andy Dalton, all of whom have had good careers and Geno, who finally seems to be trending that way now.

The third round has you solidly in career backup territory, although one notable exception, Russell Wilson, who has been a good to potentially elite starter throughout his career, notwithstanding his forgettable 2022 in Denver. Davis Mills has been surprisingly solid as a 2-year starter with a miserable Texans team. Jacoby Brissett and Nick Foles have also been effective when they have been starters for the most part during their careers and definitely fall into that 1(b) starter or the best backup in the league kind of QB category. Only three others in this round played enough to really consider. Matt Schaub and Mike Glennon had stints as starters and played okay but never good enough to not be supplanted by others. Colt McCoy was essentially a backup with a few spot starts but has managed a 12-year career that continues to this day. Glennon has also stuck around, last playing in late 2021 and having just this week signed with the Dolphins to their practice squad.

As noted earlier, 4th round seems like the cutoff point for QB expectations. But both Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were 4th rounders. Cousins and RGIII were both drafted the same year by the same team and at that time I noted that it might turn out that the Cousins' pick was the most important QB pick in that draft, in consideration of the noted frailty of RGIII and his propensity for taking hits as a runner. With Andrew Luck retiring so young and Griffin III’s playing career indeed having been derailed by injuries, it could be argued that only Russell Wilson among that class has had a better career than Kirk Cousins. Of the rest of the 4th rounders, only Kyle Orton had an extended time at starter. His numbers weren’t terrible but never were good enough to keep his teams from not looking for something or someone else. Even (gasp) Tim Tebow!

The fifth round is the biggest zilch of a round in terms of drafted QBs and their respective careers. 13 of the 29 drafted in this round in the 20 survey years never played a down in the NFL. None of the other 16 ever had significant playing time, either. Plus, there was an A.J. (McCarron) and a T.J. (Yates) drafted in this round.

The sixth round is much like the 5th round, with only Tyrod Taylor ever having significant playing time. To be fair, Tyrod has actually been pretty good, especially considering the round in which he was drafted. His height may have played a factor in where he was selected, which is one of the things that seems to have changed in scouting these days, since shorter QBs are an accepted norm today. Notable was Taylor's 3-season stint as Buffalo’s starter (2015 - 2017) which included his lone Pro Bowl selection. He was also a backup for the Ravens Super Bowl winning team of 2012. And of course, despite the fact that he falls outside this 20-year survey of draft picks, we all know how great Tom Brady, another 6th round pick, has been during his career.

The 7th round actually has had more starters than the sixth round. Already mentioned was Ryan “Fitzmagic” Fitzpatrick, the bearded Harvard educated 250th pick of 2005. In addition, Matt Cassel and Trevor Seimian both have had some starting years playing out of their last round status. Seimian is still around, spending 2022 backing up Justin Fields in Chicago. Cassel parlayed a successful year as an injured Tom Brady’s replacement into a 2-year stint as Kansas City’s starter in 2009 and as a Pro Bowler in 2010. His major bugaboo as a starter was that he could never keep his passing percentage above the 60% mark, which just doesn’t fly in the modern NFL. Twenty of the remaining 35 picked over the years in this round never played in a game. An additional 5 have played so briefly so as to indicate they may have only played in one game. Of note, however, is that two 2022 seventh round picks, Skylar Thompson and Brock Purdy (the 262nd pick, Mr. Irrelevant) will be starting playoff games in this year’s first round, replacing both starters and the QB2s on their respective teams. Also, with Lamar Jackson out, whoever starts at QB for the Ravens in their first playoff game, Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown, doesn’t even have 7th round status…..they were both signed as undrafted free agents!

                                        NFL Quarterbacks Drafted 2003 – 2022

First Round

Name                                             Year                                      Pick #

Trevor Lawrence                           2021                                          1

Joe Burrow                                    2020                                           1

Kyler Murray                                2019                                           1

Baker Mayfield                             2018                                           1

Jared Goff                                     2016                                           1

Jameis Winston*                          2015                                           1

Andrew Luck (Retd)                     2012                                           1

Cam Newton                                 2011                                           1

Sam Bradford                               2010                                           1

Matt Stafford                                2009                                           1

Jamarcus Russell                         2007                                           1

Alex Smith                                    2005                                           1

Eli Manning                                  2004                                          1

Carson Palmer                              2003                                           1

Zach Wilson                                  2021                                           2

Mitch Trubisky                             2017                                           2

Carson Wentz                               2016                                           2

Marcus Mariota                            2015                                           2

Robert Griffin III (injuries)          2012                                           2

Trey Lance*                                  2021                                            3

Sam Darnold*                              2018                                            3

Blake Bortles                               2014                                            3

Matt Ryan                                    2008                                             3

Vince Young                                  2006                                             3

Phillip Rivers                               2004                                             4

Tua Tagavailoa                            2020                                              5

Mark Sanchez                              2009                                              5

Justin Herbert                             2020                                              6

Daniel Jones                                2019                                              6

Josh Allen                                    2018                                               7

Byron Leftwich                            2003                                               7

Ryan Tannehill                            2012                                               8

Jake Locker                                 2011                                                8    

Josh Rosen                                  2018                                               10

Patrick Mahomes                        2017                                              10

Blaine Gabbert                            2011                                              10

Matt Leinart                                2006                                              10

Justin Fields                                2021                                              11

Jay Cutler                                    2006                                              11

Ben Roethlisberger                      2004                                              11

Deshaun Watson                          2017                                             12

Christian Ponder                         2011                                             12

Mac Jones                                     2021                                            15

Dwayne Haskins (deceased)        2019                                             15

E. J. Manuel                                 2013                                            16

Josh Freeman                               2009                                            17

Joe Flacco                                     2008                                            18

Kyle Boller                                   2003                                             19

Kenny Pickett                              2022                                             20

Johnny Manziel                           2014                                             22   

Brady Quinn                                2007                                             22

J.P Losman                                  2004                                             22

Rex Grossman                             2003                                              22

Aaron Rodgers                             2005                                              24

Tim Tebow                                   2010                                              25                                       

Jason Campbell                           2005                                               25

Jordan Love                                 2020                                              26

Paxton Lynch                               2016                                             26

Lamar Jackson                            2018                                             32

Teddy Bridgewater*                    2014                                             32    

 

 

 

Second Round

Name                                          Year                                                    Pick  #

Kyle Trask                                  2021                                                     64

Jalen Hurts                                2020                                                     53

Drew Lock                                  2019                                                     42

DeShone Kizer                           2017                                                     52

Christian Hackenberg               2016                                                     51

Derek Carr                                 2014                                                     36

Jimmy Garoppolo                      2014                                                     62

Geno Smith                                2013                                                     39

Brock Osweiler                          2012                                                     57

Andy Dalton*                             2011                                                     35

Colin Kaepernick                       2011                                                     36

Jimmy Clausen                          2010                                                     48

Pat White (WR)**                      2009                                                     44

Brian Brohm                              2008                                                     56

Chad Henne                               2008                                                     57

Kevin Kolb                                  2007                                                    36

John Beck                                   2007                                                    40

Drew Stanton                             2007                                                    43

Kellen Clemens                          2006                                                    49

Tarvaris Jackson                        2006                                                    64

 

Third Round

Name                                            Year                                                   Pick #  

Desmond Ridder                         2022                                                    74

Malik Willis                                2022                                                    86

Matt Corral                                 2022                                                    94

Kellen Mond                               2021                                                     66

Davis Mills                                 2021                                                     67

Will Grier                                   2019                                                    100

Mason Rudolph                          2019                                                     76

Davis Webb (PS)                        2017                                                     87

C. J. Beathard                            2017                                                   104

Jacoby Brissett*                         2016                                                    91

Cody Kessler                              2016                                                     93

Garret Grayson                          2015                                                    75

Sean Mannion (PS)                    2015                                                     89

Mike Glennon                             2013                                                    73   

Russell Wilson                            2012                                                    75

Nick Foles                                   2012                                                    88

Ryan Mallett                               2011                                                    74

Colt McCoy                                 2010                                                    85

Kevin O’Connell (4/6 23yds)       2008                                                    94

Trent Edwards                            2007                                                    92

Charlie Whitehurst                    2006                                                     81

Brodie Croyle                              2006                                                    85

Charlie Frye                                2005                                                    67

Andrew Walter                            2005                                                    69

David Greene                              2005                                                    85

Matt Schaub                               2004                                                    90

Dave Ragone (2 starts)               2003                                                    88

Chris Simms                               2003                                                    97

 

Fourth Round

Name                                              Year                                                  Pick #

Bailey Zappe                                  2022                                                   137

Ian Book                                         2021                                                   133

Jacob Eason (PS) (5/10 84yds)       2020                                                   122

James Morgan (PS)                        2020                                                  125

Ryan Finley                                    2019                                                  104

Jarrett Stidham*                            2019                                                  133

Kyle Lauletta (PS) (0/5, 1 INT)      2018                                                  108

Josh Dobbs (PS)                              2017                                                  135

Connor Cook                                   2016                                                  100

Dak Prescott                                   2016                                                  135

Cardale Jones (6/11 96yds)            2016                                                  139

Bryce Petty                                    2015                                                  103

Logan Thomas (TE)**                    2014                                                  120

Tom Savage                                    2014                                                  135

Matt Barkley (PS)                          2013                                                   98

Ryan Nassib (9/10 128 yds)            2013                                                 110

Tyler Wilson                                   2013                                                  112

Landry Jones                                 2013                                                  115

Kirk Cousins                                  2012                                                 102     

Mike Kafka                                    2010                                                  122

Stephen McGee                              2009                                                  101

Isaiah Stanback (WR)**                2007                                                  103

Brad Smith (WR/RB)**                 2006                                                  103

Kyle Orton                                     2005                                                  106

Stefan Lefors                                 2005                                                  121

Luke McCown                                2004                                                  106

Seneca Wallace                              2003                                                  110

Fifth Round

Name                                             Year                                                 Pick #

Sam Howell                                  2022                                                  144

Jake Fromm (PS)                         2020                                                  167

Easton Stick (1/1 4yds)                2019                                                  166

Clayton Thorson (PS)                  2019                                                  167

Mike White*                                2018                                                   171   

Nathan Peterman                        2017                                                  171

Kevin Hogan (PS)                        2016                                                  162

Brett Hundley (PS)                      2015                                                  147

Aaron Murray                              2014                                                  163  

A. J. McCarron                             2014                                                  164

Ricky Stanzi                                 2011                                                  135

T.J. Yates                                      2011                                                  152

Nathan Enderley                         2011                                                  160

John Skelton                                2010                                                  155

John Crompton                            2010                                                  168

Rhett Bomar                                2009                                                  151

Nate Davis                                   2009                                                  171

John David Booty                        2008                                                  137

Dennis Dixon                               2008                                                  156

Josh Johnson (PS)                       2008                                                  160

Erik Ainge                                   2008                                                  162

Jeff Rowe                                     2007                                                  151

Troy Smith                                  2007                                                  174

Ingle Martin                                2006                                                  148

Omar Jacobs                                2006                                                  164

Dan Orlovsky                              2005                                                   145

Adrian McPherson                      2005                                                   152

Craig Krenzel                              2004                                                  148

Brian St. Pierre                          2003                                                   163

 

Sixth Round

Name                                             Year                                               Pick #

Sam Ehlinger                                2021                                                 218

Jake Luton                                    2020                                                 189

Gardner Minshew                         2019                                                 178

Trace McSorley (PS)                      2019                                               197

Luke Falk                                      2018                                                199

Tanner Lee                                    2018                                                203

Brad Kaaya                                   2017                                                215

Nate Sudfeld (PS)                          2016                                                187

Jake Rudock (3/5 24 yds)              2016                                                 191

Brandon Allen                               2016                                                 201

Jeff Driskel (PS)                           2016                                                 207

Zach Mettenberger                       2014                                                178

David Fales                                   2014                                                183

Keith Wenning                             2014                                                 194  

Tahj Boyd                                     2014                                                 213

Garrett Gilbert (PS)                     2014                                                 214

Ryan Lindley                                2012                                                185

Tyrod Taylor                                 2011                                                180

Rusty Smith                                 2010                                                 176

Dan LeFevour                              2010                                                 181

Tony Pike (6/12 47yds)                 2010                                                 204

Tom Brandstater (0/2)                  2009                                                 174

Mike Teel                                     2009                                                 178

Keith Null                                    2009                                                 196

Curtis Painter                             2009                                                  201

Colt Brennan                               2008                                                 186

Andre Woodson                           2008                                                  198

Jordan Palmer                            2007                                                  205

Reggie McNeal*                          2006                                                  193

Bruce Gradkowski                      2006                                                  194

Derek Anderson                          2005                                                  213

Andy Hall                                    2004                                                  185

Josh Harris                                 2004                                                  187

Jim Sorgi                                    2004                                                   193

Jeff Smoker                                2004                                                   201

Drew Henson                              2003                                                   192

Brooks Bollinger                         2003                                                   200

Kliff Kingsbury (1/2 17 yds)       2003                                                   201

 

Seventh Round

Name                                            Year                                                Pick #

Chris Oladakun (PS)                    2022                                                241

Skylar Thompson                         2022                                                247

Brock Purdy (last pick)                2022                                                262

Cole McDonald                             2020                                                224

Ben DiNucci (PS)                         2020                                                231

Tommy Stevens                           2020                                                 240

Nate Stanley                                2020                                                244

Danny Elting (PS)                       2018                                                219

Alex McGough                             2018                                                220

Logan Woodside (1/3 7yds)         2018                                                 249

Chad Kelly                                   2017                                                253

Brandon Doughty                        2016                                                223

Trevor Siemian                            2015                                                250

Brad Sorensen                             2013                                                221

Zac Dysert                                    2013                                                234

B.J. Daniels*                                2013                                                237

Sean Renfree (3/7 11yds)            2013                                                 249

B.J. Coleman                               2012                                                 243

Chandler Harnish                       2012                                                 253

Greg McElroy                              2011                                                 208

Levi Brown (2/3 24 yds)              2010                                                 209

Sean Canfield                              2010                                                239

Zac Robinson                               2010                                                250

Matt Flynn                                  2008                                                209

Alex Brink                                   2008                                                223

Tyler Thigpen                             2007                                                217

D.J. Shockley                              2006                                                223

James Kilian                               2005                                               229

Matt Cassel                                 2005                                               230

Ryan Fitzpatrick                         2005                                               250

John Navarre                              2004                                               202

Cody Pickett                                2004                                               217

Casey Bramlet                            2004                                               218

Matt Mauck                                2004                                               225

B.J. Symons                                2004                                               248

Bradlee Van Pelt (2/8 7yds)        2004                                                250

Gibran Hamdan (1/2 7yds)         2003                                                232

Ken Dorsey                                 2003                                                241

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Currents that were undrafted: Brian Hoyer (PS – Patriots), Cooper Rush (Cowboys QB2), Nick Mullens (QB2 - Vikings), Brett Rypien (QB2 - Broncos), Shane Buechele (PS - Chiefs), Brian Lewerke (PS – Giants), Steven Montez (PS – Lions), Kurt Benkert (PS – Packers), Ryan Griffin (PS – Bucs), Chris Streveler (Jets), Anthony Brown (Ravens), P.J. Walker (Panthers), Tim Boyle (Bears), Kyle Allen (Texans), Chase Daniel (QB2 – Chargers), John Wolford and Bryce Perkins (Rams). 

-PS denotes Practice Squad-

 

Bright teal denotes a player who was drafted as a QB and never played in a game in the league as a QB or only played a few plays without throwing any passes (ie Wildcat or option runs only). Several exceptions are noted with asterisks to denote players who might have played at a different position after being drafted as a QB. The position will be noted next to the name.

Yellow denotes players who are current starters. Some are noted with an asterisk if they were recent starters and may become starters again in the near future.

Light Grey denotes a successful starter whose career is now over.

Purple denotes a player who was a starter for part of their career (at least 2 seasons starting most of their team’s games or 1 season as a full-time starter) but was unsuccessful or unable to avoid being replaced as a starter.

In addition, there are a few players in the list with stats written next to their names. Those guys played so little as to almost be in the bright teal category, but they did actually play, so despite their usefulness as NFL players being negligible, they cannot be categorized as non-players.