The Failing in the Final Four of College Football in 2023

Like almost everyone on earth (or at least in the United States), I had a somewhat instantaneously negative reaction to Florida State being left out of the 4 team College Football FBS level Playoff. The reasoning behind Alabama being in and FSU out was that the committee believed that an undefeated 'Noles team with an injured starting QB would be a lesser opponent for Michigan than an Alabama team that just beat undefeated Georgia and has won 11 games straight. 

My knee-jerk reaction to that was that the problem resided in the fact that Michigan was ranked #1 and simply couldn't be left out because of that ranking even though of the four teams in, they were likely the weakest team. And I do believe that FSU would have been as much of a test as Alabama and could likely have beaten Michigan, as well. The other problem was that Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Had Georgia won, it would have been a simple sweep of the four undefeated Power 5 teams in the playoff. Texas would have been left out with their loss to Oklahoma and with slightly less prestige in their game two win at Alabama, who would have then had 2 losses. Alabama upset that apple cart by beating Georgia.

Then, as I am wont to do, I decided to actually look at some numbers and see if there was something to be found to prove my theory about Michigan really being the undefeated team that should have been left out. What I found was surprising.

Of the 5 teams surveyed (FSU and the 4 playoff teams), only Washington and Michigan did not play an FCS squad. For the purpose of my survey, I did not include the win/loss records of any FCS team. So, after the championship games, the aggregate records of the FBS opponents of each school looks like this, in order of best percentage to worst:

Alabama -      90-56

Texas -           91-67

Washington - 87-72

Michigan -     83-75

FSU -             74-71

FSU, at the bottom of the pile, also had an FCS game on their schedule, as did Alabama. Michigan's aggregate was second weakest, but they played all FBS opponents. The weakness of their opponents had more to do with the overall weakness of the Big 10 than anything else. Alabama and Texas, the two squads with a loss, played the toughest schedules. Alabama, naturally, because they are in the SEC. The Texas schedule, however, only featured 4 games out of the 13 against an opponent with a record under .500. Alabama played only 3 such teams, although that should be considered as 4 because of the FCS game. FSU also played four teams under .500, plus the FCS game. Washington played 5 such games and Michigan played against 6 sub .500 opponents, all but one within their conference. 

What Michigan did, to their credit, was to absolutely make hay against that weak schedule, with an average margin of victory, rounded, of 37-10. They nearly matched that margin in the Big 10 championship game, beating Iowa 26-0. They only had three games that they won by less than 24 points and those were against 11-1 Ohio State, 10-2 Penn State, and 7-5 Maryland. The other two undefeated teams, Florida State and Washington won their games by aggregates of 37-16 and 38 -24, respectively. 

As for Alabama and Texas, that is where the entire quandary resides. Texas beat Alabama. Alabama beat Georgia. Therefore, you simply can't leave Texas out if Alabama is in. And Alabama is in because they knocked off the kings of college football. Both teams had a very similar average game score, which was also almost identical to FSU's. As before, here is a table to illustrate the average margin of victory for each team, in order:

Michigan -       37-10

FSU -               37-16

Texas -             36-18

Alabama -        35-18

Washington -   38-24

So, taking all of this in, what it ultimately came down was a choice between two undefeated teams, Washington and FSU, and one team with a loss, Alabama, for two spots. And while my initial reaction was that FSU should be there instead of Michigan, I think, if anyone, FSU could have been put in ahead of Washington instead, if you were making the choice to add two one-loss teams. Either way, it was a ridiculous choice to make. One that could reasonably come down to something as strange and random as whether or not a starting QB is out with an injury. Really, though, the committee should have left out Alabama. Despite the fact that they beat Georgia. 

While I know this kind of argument will always continue into the future, this year is particularly egregious. Even as the playoff will expand to twelve, the last team out always have a case to make. In that spirit, I would also like to note that it is somewhat ironic that FSU, Washington, and Michigan represent the only three conferences, the ACC, the Big 10, and the soon-to-be-defunct PAC 12, that voted against early expansion to a 12-team playoff during the current contract, which is set to expire in 2025. 

And, despite all of this, I still think it is likely that Michigan might still be the weakest team. Nothing other than tradition really dictates that belief, but I still could picture them being the team I would be least surprised to see losing their first playoff game. I guess the Stugotz is strong in me today as I can't help but think, "Do it against Alabama".