NFL Quarterbacks 2023: A Comparative Statistical Analysis by Team

First of all, not to be self-referential, but congratulations to C. J. Stroud for breaking the "initials as a name curse" that I outlined in the first sentence of my QB draft analysis  (Drafting an NFL Quarterback: A 20 year comparison of the drafted QBs by Round. (sportsthinker310319.blogspot.com)) post from January of 2023. I feel that Houston has to feel perfectly justified and satisfied with how the old Deshaun Watson saga turned out for their franchise in consideration of Stroud's first season.

This will be the third year of my QB analysis, but because this was such a strange year for the position (call 2023 The Year Of The Backup QB) with so many starters being supplanted due to injury or poor performance. Therefore, my analysis this year is not by QB but by team QB room. It seemed an easier way to figure out the map of QB quality for this season, at least.

Last season, Cleveland so adequately proved a point I often like to make, in which if your team is high quality over-all, your QB need not be elite for the team to succeed. The Browns had 5 QB starters (most in the NFL) during the season, with two of those also getting significant playing time in taking over for the starter in-game. None of them played particularly well, with the overall room finishing statistically 22nd out of the 32 NFL teams. And yet, pair that with one of the best defenses (fewest yards from scrimmage allowed) in the game and an above average running game and the team was 11-6 and made the playoffs...

....where they were blown out in their first playoff game by, ironically enough, the Houston Texans, who basically proved the opposite point. In which a team that was terrible last season (and for several previous seasons, too) drafted a QB who turned out to be pretty damn good, and vastly improved. Meaning that having the elite QB was really all that they needed. Along with a good coach in DeMeco Ryans, who was eager to prove that he was ready to step up from coordinator to head coach. And, not for nothing, but it is at this point that I should submit that, based on the rest of the roster, most pundits believed the Texans were still going to be one of the league's WORST teams in 2024. 

Despite that evidence, I still think that enough teams have won championships with less than stellar QBs to make it a viable path to success. Even Tom Brady was more of a game manager or a middling level QB when the Patriots won Super Bowls in 3 of his first four years as a starter. The TEAM around him was great and he was good enough. But many of Brady's truly great years also coincided with years where New England was a playoff team but NOT a champion. In other words, it certainly doesn't hurt to have a great QB, but I would rather have a great team. Having both gets the dynasty talk started, and with Kansas City winning Super Bowl 58, that is where we are. On the other side of that championship coin sits the 49ers and Brock Purdy, a situation which bears a striking resemblance to those early Brady Patriots teams, except they don't seem to be able to break through. I guess that is the difference between Kyle Shanahan and Bill Belichick.

Some numbers stand out about passing AND rushing statistics in 2023. The numbers look low this year and a look back tells us they are. Since 2013, there have been 6 years out of the 11 with at least one 5000+ yards passer (nine times in total) in the league, and in 2014 Brees and Roethlisberger both had 4952 yards, basically within a few passes of reaching 5000. 

There have also been 10 out of those 11 seasons with at least one RB with 300+ carries during a season. 2023 was the only year that didn't have any RB attain that number. Which seems strange because as passing offense declines, running offense usually increases. (I have a bit more on this a few paragraphs below)

What those numbers tell me is that offenses were slowing down the game a bit and maybe they were also more turnover prone. The second hypothesis is inconclusive. There were 430 total league interceptions in 2023, which is right at the average number for 2013-2023, which was 431. The game did slow down offensively, however, and I think I know why.

There is another recent season that looks very much like 2023 statistically and that was 2017. In 2017, three starting QBs were in their first season as starters and three more were in their second starter seasons. Marcus Mariota was in his 3rd season as a starter, as well, but his was younger in age than many of the other 6 newbies. Seventy - one QBs took a snap that year, which is not the highest total but is higher than an average year.

Now, compare that to 2023 and we see a very similar trend. A lot of new starters. Five QBs (Jordan Love, Sam Howell, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Desmond Ridder) were all basically first-time starters even if they weren't rookies. Brock Purdy was in his 2nd year starting, coming off an injury and he only started around half of the 2022 season. Josh Dobbs started 12 games for two teams after never having started before. Zach Wilson started 11 games when he was supposed to have been supplanted by Aaron Rodgers. Will Levis, Aidan O'Connell, Tommy DeVito and Tyson Bagent all started a significant number of games as rookies. Not to mention Kenny Pickett, who was only starting his 2nd full season. And a total of 79 QBs took snaps during the season. All of which explains very reasonably why the QB reins were being held tightly by many coaches in quite a few cities. I can only imagine, for example, that the play calling would have been significantly different with the Jets if Rodgers had been the starter all season. 

Even the two season's rushing statistics look very similar. I noted earlier that 2023 was the first season in the last eleven without a single running back attempting over 300 carries. That trend actually goes way further back...to 1990, to be exact. That season, Earnest Byner led all NFL RBs with just 297 carries on the season. But statistically, team rushing has changed very little over the years. Between 2013 and 2023, when factoring in the recently expanded 17 game schedules, the average NFL team of that era rushes between 440-460 times a season for an average of about 4.3 yards per carry. Despite having nobody in the league rushing for more than 300 attempts, the 2023 team average of 456 rushing attempts is actually in the high end of the range.

So, with all of that said, NFL offenses played slower and more conservatively last year than in many previous years. Aside from the similar 2017 season, you have to go back to the mid twenty aughts to find seasons where the league's yardage passing leader was in the 4400 -4700 yards range.  

All of that being said, comparisons are just that...comparisons. And we are not comparing 2023 to other years. We are comparing the 2023 QB rooms of all 32 teams based on their stats and picking out who, compared to the others, has the best QB situation, statistically.

The criteria are very similar to my previous comparisons, with some tweaks. I eliminated the won/loss record (never a favorite of mine for comparison purposes in a team sport) and, after adding in rushing yards and sacks last year, I took them back out. This years comparison stats are Completions, Attempts, Completion Percentage, Yards, Touchdowns, Interceptions, Yards/Attempt, Yards/Completion, Yards/Game, QB Rating and my favorite teller of all tales, TD to INT Ratio. Also new this year is a low score approach, meaning that a team that finishes first in a category gets a score of 1 and one who finishes last gets the full 32 points. Think golf scores here. Tie scores in categories are added and then divided. In other words, if three teams finish tied for 16th best in a category, they occupy 16th, 17th and 18th places and each team gets the average of those three scores, 17. The team finishing just above them will have 15 points and the one right behind them gets 19 points. Got it? Good!

And, without further ado, the rankings:

The Elites: Under 100 Points:

There are six NFL teams in this elite group and all but one of them, Minnesota, played essentially one QB for the entire length of their season. Which says something for QB health as a predictor of QB room quality for any random team. 

1) Dallas Cowboys - (50.5 points, category average of 4.59)

     Yes, THAT team. The ultimate playoff chokers, the team everyone loves to hate. Or, more to the point, the team that everyone loves to mock. But, statistically, Dak Prescott was easily the best QB in the league in 2023 and it wasn't even close. And he WAS the QB room in its entirety for the Cowboys, playing 96% of their offensive snaps. Cooper Rush contributed a line of 18/24 for 144 yards and an INT in 7 games across the season. The rest was all Dak, all of the time. And he was very, very good. In fact, Dak suffers most from those critics who conflate TEAM success with QB success. If Dallas wants to listen to the people NOT in the know and rid themselves of Prescott, I would be thrilled if my favorite team, the Atlanta Falcons, ended up with him. He is elite in every way. And he was a 4th round pick, no less. 

     Dallas was first in completions (428), completion percentage (69.7%) and TDs thrown (36). They were 2nd in QB rating (104.6) and in TD/INT Ratio (3.6 - 1), which is, in my opinion, the best stat to differentiate QB quality, In addition, Prescott was 2nd in the league (by 0.1 points) in QBR, a stat I didn't use because it can only be applied to individuals. Dallas was also 3rd in Yards passing (4660) and yards/game (essentially the same stat). The only category in which they were below league average was yards per completion. 

     Dak Prescott is NOT the problem in Dallas. Much like when the Falcons were owned by the Smith family, OWNERSHIP is the issue in Dallas. Everyone should already know this.

2) Miami Dolphins – (81 points, category average of 7.36)

     Miami's score was even more all about their starter, Tua Tagavailoa, than Dallas' score was, although Mike White managed to lower the TD/INT ratio by .07 to 1 by somehow managing to throw both a TD and an interception in his 6 passes. In fact, White's interception was his only incompletion on the season! 

     Miami didn't finish first in any category and weren't quite as consistent across the board as Dallas. That said, Miami was second in completion percentage (69.4%), yards (4698) and yards per game, and yards per attempt (8.3). Yards per completion was a 3rd (12.0). In addition, their QB rating of 101.2 was 4th and TD passes (30) was 5th. The ratio (with Mike White's meddling) was 2 to 1, for 11.5 points, tied for 11th/12th with the LA Rams.

3) Detroit Lions - (85 points, category average of 7.73)

     I think that despite the fact that Matt Stafford brought the LA Rams a Super Bowl win, Detroit won the Jared Goff for Stafford trade. Because Detroit passed the franchise QB baton to a 7 years younger QB without missing a beat in terms of quality from the position. And this year's Lions passing game was ALL Goff...the only "QB" stats not his are two snaps, one by linebacker Jalen Reeves - Maybin and one by wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, that resulted in a sack and one completed pass. I guess hyphenated name guys should not be passing the ball in Detroit.

    Nine of the 11 categories for Detroit have scores in the top 10 of the league, including two 5th place categories, TD passes thrown and completion percentage, which are their highest rankings. While the status of both Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins are up in the air, the NFC North division, as a whole, was the best overall QB division in the NFL in 2023. Basically, with the Lions, it comes to high level consistency across almost all of the categories.

4) Houston Texans - (86.5 points, category average of 7.86)

     The Texans had a weird season, losing to Atlanta, Carolina and getting blown out by the Jets, but also splitting with Jacksonville (outscoring them 58-41), beating Cincinnati (with Joe Burrow) on the road, blowing out Pittsburgh and beating Tampa in a shootout. 

     Houston had mostly stellar stats, with only completion percentage in the bottom half of league average, which was the only nod to Stroud being a rookie starter. They threw few interceptions (8 in 17 games!), had a high TD/INT ratio (3rd in the league) and were second and 4th in yards per completion and yards per attempt, respectively. And 4th in the NFL in the yards passing categories. In other words, C. J. Stroud was an absolute home run and Houston is set at QB for the foreseeable future. 

5) San Francisco 49ers - (98 points, category average of 8.91)

     Yes, I know, it's really hard to conceive that the last pick in the NFL could possibly be a good player, especially at this position. And while a large amount of credit can be given to the QB whisperer coach, Kyle Shanahan, I think it is pretty clear that Brock Purdy is "purdy" damn good. 

     I think we forget that the notion of a "system quarterback" can work both ways. Maybe Brock Purdy didn't seem so great as a college QB (although a look at his numbers belies that, especially his sophomore season) because Iowa State was not that great of a team, nor was the coaching stellar and imaginative. In other words, a "system" that doesn't necessarily elevate a QB's status. Purdy was a starter for 4 years in Ames, and the team was okay, compiling an overall 31-20 record during that time. But, 31-20 at Iowa State versus say, 47-4 at Alabama, can change the perspective under which an equally talented QB might be viewed.

     The 49ers score, almost all of which was Purdy (Darnold had 1 pretty good start), featured 3 first place scores for Rating, Yards/Attempt and also Yards/Completion. The INT numbers were just average, which can be partially attributable to the high yards per attempt numbers (longer passes = more INTs) and they had low scores in total attempts and total completions. Those last two were largely because they had the league's leading runner in Christian McCaffrey and third best rushing offense overall and a top ten defense, both of which usually lead to fewer pass attempts in all circumstances. 

6) Minnesota Vikings - (98.5 points, category average of 8.95)

      The Vikings, much like Cleveland, had to make do with a whole passel of different QBs, with 4 people making starts behind center. Somehow, despite only starting 8 of the 17 games, Kirk Cousins, being his usual awesome stats self, saved the team's overall QB ranking, mostly through his usual highly ranked ratio stat...the team overall was 1.57 - 1, while Cousins threw 18 TDs and 5 INTs for a 3.6 - 1 ratio, which would have ranked as tied for 2nd in the league. 

     No matter which QB was playing, the completion percentage was passable and the team threw, as a whole, for the most passing yards on the season, although their 4700 yards passing really represents a statistical dead heat with Miami's 4698. On the downside, the other 3 non-Cousins QBs (Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullins and Jaren Hall) threw 12 TDs and 14 INTs, putting the ratio and total INTs in the bottom half of the league. The 19th overall INTs were, in fact, 5th worst in the league.

     The real question in Minneapolis is what to do with their situation. They are the only team in this group with a potential QB move coming, as Cousins and Dobbs are BOTH entering free agency. I feel like they are going to pass on the excellent known quantity (Cousins, who since I initially wrote this, has signed with Atlanta) because he hasn't had playoff success. Which means either trading up (the 11th overall pick may already find them in the second tier of available QBs to draft), drafting from that 2nd tier (McCarthy, Nix or Penix, Jr.) or swapping, in a sense, Cousins with a younger or cheaper free agent, like potentially Baker Mayfield. 

    And, as it turns out, after the first days of free agency, Cousins has moved on to Atlanta. Minnesota has signed Sam Darnold away from San Francisco to team with Nick Mullens. What happens with Josh Dobbs remains to be seen.

The Above Average Tier: 101 to 151 Points:

The most interesting thing about this group is that this is where all the "perceived elite" QBs reside for 2023. The franchise QBs that you hold onto at all costs and many of the more successful playoff slingers out there. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow fall into this group and I doubt any of their teams realistically believe that there is a better option out there to be had. And Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert are also putting big smiles on their respective GM's faces, too.

All of the teams in this group are bunched up into a tidy package of ten teams over a spread of only 25 points, from 125.5 to 150.5, before we get to the next sizable gap between teams, which will start the next group.

7) Los Angeles Chargers - (125.5 points, category average score of 11.41)

     It has to be somewhat heartening to Chargers management that Easton Stick did not represent a huge drop-off in production in the 4 games he started while Justin Herbert was injured. Quarterback is definitely NOT the problem here. Coaching was, until Brandon Staley finally figured out how much rope LA was willing to give him with which to hang himself, metaphorically, which turned out to be thousands of feet. Defense was also the problem. This franchise is SET at QB. Which is, in large part, why Jim Harbaugh took this job.

     A lot of pass completions and attempts, top third in yards passing and a good ratio are offset by average TD passes (one of their 24 being thrown by WR Keenan Allen), completion percentage and rating. And below average yards per attempt and per completion numbers. Most of the negative stats are ones that project more upon the play calling than on the QB himself. We shall see what effect that Jim Harbaugh has. His 49ers teams were good, but the passing numbers were not stellar during his 2011-2014 stint. Was that because he had Alex Smith transitioning into Colin Kaepernick or was it a reflection of his coaching? Either way, he will be taking the field in 2024 with a better QB on his roster than he has ever had before.

8) Green Bay Packers - (126 points, category average score of 11.45)

     Jordan Love, Jordan Love, Jordan Love....the most forgotten first round QB in a while, because he had to wait until Aaron Rodgers left. For as often as a QB plays immediately as a rookie and succeeds (not as often as you think), it seems that the ones who have to wait are almost ALWAYS better for that experience, with one caveat: That they were worthy of the high pick in the first place. In other words, I am not talking about 5th rounders who sit and then get a chance in a team's "tank for the first pick" year.

     Jordan Love was worth it. All but one score (completion percentage - 18th place) were in the top half of the league for what was, essentially, a rookie season. Nothing really outstanding here, beyond TDs (3rd place) and a nice 2.91 - 1 TD/INT ratio. The rating of 96.1 was also top 10. Otherwise, it was just a plethora of solid and consistent scores in the 10-15 range. Not a super year, but one that provides a solid foundation and that old "we've got the right starter" feeling.

9) New Orleans Saints - (130.5 points, category average score of 11.86)

      This was mostly Derek Carr, although Jameis Winston played the equivalent of a full game. And, outside of the yards, Winston only put a dent in the overall numbers. New Orleans' ratio, for instance, came in at 2.54 - 1 (adding in Taysom Hill's 1 TD pass) overall, 9th best in the league. Without Winston's 2 TDs and 3 INTs, that number goes up to 3.25 - 1, which would have been 5 spots higher. 

     Derek Carr is not a great QB, but he is a very good one who has suffered for most of his career on mediocre teams. During his three best years in the league, 2019 -2021, the Raiders were 25-24, and I believe that Carr takes too much blame for that. That people are still knocking him (I've heard his 2023 season described by one pundit as mediocre) while statistically being a top 10 QB is beyond me. This kind of idiocy comes from the "eye test" types who forget that football is a team sport with more players than are on any other type of team in sports. New Orleans had a mediocre TEAM last year, 

     During a final playoff push in which the Saints won 4 out of 5 games, Carr passed for 223 yards per game with a 74% completion rate, 14 TDs and 2 INTs. The season's overall numbers had New Orleans with only 2 category scores worse than 13th in the league, and those were both in the yards per attempt and completion categories, both of which can be easily affected by play call style and the receiver's abilities to create yards after the catch. 

10) Baltimore Ravens - (133.5 points, category average score of 12.14)

     During my 2022 NFL QB analysis, I took some issue with my own 2021 report because I had not taken into consideration the value that a running QB has outside of the strict passing game. I tried to quantify that in 2022 with mixed results, so I went back to making judgements based on the 90% part of a quarterback's game, the passing stats. And that brings us to a great QB, Lamar Jackson, on which much greatness is bestowed upon his game by the rushing yards and elusiveness he adds to his team's stats. 

     By any measurement, Lamar Jackson had a great season. He played the most games in a single season, 16, in his career. He set a career high in passing yards while also having his 3rd best rushing season, with an overall yards gained total of 4499. Even with Tyler Huntley getting the one start in the season finale' (and some mop up duty in a blowout), the PASSING stats alone put Baltimore firmly in the league's top half of QB rooms. The lowest scores were, not surprisingly, in the attempts and completions and the yardage categories. They finished first in two categories, total INTs and ratio, which was nearly 4 to 1. And yards per attempt and per completion were both quite high, 3rd and 5th, respectively.

11) Buffalo Bills - (136 points, category average score of 12.36)

     Josh Allen is somewhat similar to Lamar Jackson, as he also has prodigious rushing abilities and stats. The Bills QB room was Allen, as he played every snap behind center in 2023. Most of the stats were solidly above average with the best scores in the TD passes (7th) and yardage categories (overall, per game, per attempt and completion) which were all top 10, along with completion percentage. 

     What dropped the grade was mostly a large number of INTs, which lowered the ratio despite the high number of TDs to 1.61 to 1. Those two scores were in the bottom half of the league, and, in fact, there were only 4 teams in 2023 that threw for more interceptions. And none of them had as good a QB (outside of Cousins, who only managed 8 starts) as Allen. He has always been a bit of a gunslinger, but in the previous 3 seasons prior to '23, his ratio had been a full point higher, cumulatively, at 2.76 - 1. Which means the problem is likely fixable. And even with Stefon Diggs, it is not like the Bills had a great receiving corps.

12) Kansas City Chiefs - (141 points, category average score of 12.82)

     Obviously, not being at the top, statistically, in the 2023 QB rankings did not hurt either the Chiefs or the Bills and Ravens right above them. Weirdly, too, the Chiefs and Bills regular seasons were almost mirror images. The Chiefs blasted out to a 7-2 start before finishing 4-4, while Buffalo started out 5-5 and ended with six wins in their final 7 games. 

     Patrick Mahomes is, for all intents and purposes, the best starting QB in the league. He threw a lot of passes last season, number 2 in attempts and 3 in completions. He also threw nearly as many INTs as Josh Allen and had a very similar ratio. Along with that, the bugaboos were in yards per attempt and completion, both solidly in the lower half of the league. All of this, at least in Kansas City's case, points at a less than stellar receiving corp. Even Travis Kelce had a bit of a case of the yips last season, despite having 93 receptions, as his catch percentage was just a hair below 77%. Only one wide receiver, standout rookie Rashee Rice, cracked the top 4 in receptions on the team. The obvious priority here is getting some better pass catchers to add to Kelce and Rice. Basically, the WR group is a WR2 and a bunch of WR4s. And a lot of dropped passes.

13) Cincinnati Bengals - (142 points, category average score of 12.91)

    The most remarkable thing about this score is that almost half of it was compiled by Jake Browning. Joe Burrow started 10 games before being injured. In fact, outside of the ratio score and its partner, Interceptions thrown, Browning actually outplayed Burrow last year!

     Between the two of them, the Bengals were 4th in completions and percentage, and 7th in attempts. Everything else more or less matched their 13th place finish in this ranking, with the notable exceptions being low scores in interceptions thrown, yards per attempt and yards per completion. All of the other scores were elevens, twelves or thirteens. This level of quarterback play is how the Bengals managed to finish 9-8 in the league's most competitive division, the AFC North. In fact, they were the only team to fail to make the playoffs from that division. And that was after a 1-3 start!

14) Jacksonville Jaguars - (146 points, category average score of 13.27)

     It is remarkable to me what happens among the punditry over such a thing as football. Backup QB C.J. Beathard started one game and played the equivalent of two in 2023. Trevor Lawrence started 16 games. The team finished at 9-8, the exact same record they had in 2022, with the only difference being that they made the playoffs in '22 and not in '23. And what does everyone say, automatically and immediately? Well...maybe Trevor Lawrence isn't as good as we thought. 

     It is hard to fathom just how hardwired everyone is to the playoff success = good QB equation. For Lawrence, the 2022 and 2023 seasons were essentially the same in statistical terms. The only major difference was in ratio, which does happen to be my favorite telling stat of QB excellence. Lawrence threw 25 TDs and 8 INTs (3.12 -1 ratio) in 2022 versus 21 TDs and 14 INTs (1.5 - 1 ratio) in 2023. All of the other stats were basically identical otherwise. 

     Beathard's work actually raised the ratio a bump, but it was one of the lower scores, along with TD passes, INTs thrown, rating and yards per catch. The scores are weirdly clustered, with five categories having a score between 5 and 8.5, and the other six scores falling in a cluster between 14.5 and 21.

15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (148.5 points, category average score of 13.5)

      Meanwhile, on planet Tampa, Baker Mayfield's season was rightly seen as a resurrection and a big new contract came his way. I guess it is all about expectations. It didn't hurt that Tampa made a bit of a splash during the post season, blasting Philadelphia in the opening round and acquitting themselves as well as almost anyone else did at Detroit in trying to make the NFC Conference Championship game. In fact, ironically, Tampa's 2023 post-season mirrored Jacksonville's from the year earlier. I wonder what will happen if Mayfield has a similar 2024 season to the one he had in '23 but without the playoff run? Likely he will go back to being considered poorly by the punditry.

      The stats were average or just below (16-18) except for the TDs and INTs thrown and the good ratio (7th in the NFL), all of which lead to a high QB rating score. Yards per attempt and completion were also slightly above average. All in all, a nice comeback season for Baker after a few years (unfairly, I think) spent in the doghouse.

16) Los Angeles Rams - (150.5 points, category average score of 13.68)

     The Rams were a remarkable story last year, winning 7 of their final eight games (the only loss being in OT at 13-4 Baltimore) after a 3-6 start to finish 10-7 and reach the playoff as a wild card. 

     Matthew Stafford is still pretty solid a starter at 35, going 9-6 in his fifteen starts. Brett Rypien and late season addition Carson Wentz each started once, although Wentz was the far better of the two and got the Rams other win on the season. The totals for all 3 over the season were pretty consistent with where they stand, right in the middle of the pack, with the only outlier being a low overall completion percentage.

The Meh Tier: 152 to 210 Points:

     This is probably the lowest tier from which you could reasonably expect a decent post-season showing from your team in consideration of the level of QB play. Although reasonable is definitely a quantifier, as only one of the six teams in this tier, Philadelphia, made the playoffs and they lost their first game by 23 points at home to Tampa. 

    That playoff performance was really no better than what you got in the final group of teams, although their two playoff squads came from a group of 11 teams and both playoff entrants from that group, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, were beaten pretty soundly in their playoff games. 

17) Seattle Seahawks - (160.5 points, category average score of 14.59)

     When Geno Smith played in 4 games (3 starts) in 2021, filling in for an injured Russell Wilson, it was the start of one of the most intriguing resurrection stories in the history of NFL quarterbacks. Since that time, he has averaged 4181 yards with 27 TDs and 10 INTs with a 67% completion percentage per season as the Seahawks' starter. This for a guy who was a certified draft bust (allegedly with an attitude) after being drafted by the Jets in 2013. 

     After being benched mid-game against the Bills and staying there for the next 2 games in mid 2014, Smith did finish out that season as the Jets starter and then basically didn't play for the next 6 seasons with the Jets, Giants and Seahawks. He was an early 2nd round draft pick and a classic example of killing a QB career by starting him too early on a bad team.

      Drew Lock started 2 games and played short stints and two others in 2023 and his only "contribution" to the QB room scores was to lower the ratio by 0.31 - 1 from Smith's 2.22 - 1 to the team overall score of 1.91 - 1. The team's category scores were all between 10 - 16, which is a little above average, with a low score of 20 for total TDs thrown. 

18) Denver Broncos - (171.5 points, category average score of 15.59)

     Russell Wilson was cheap shot contractually benched last season so that the Broncos wouldn't have to pay him a bonus based on an injury clause in his contract. Not that they really saved anything because they ended up cutting him in the offseason and are paying about $55 million to have him go play QB somewhere else. That is just bad management all around. 

      So, the overall team numbers include two Jarrett Stidham starts and he did acquit himself fairly well in those 2 games. Wilson's season was much like his rookie campaign in 2012 and his last season in Seattle in 2021. Not a lot of passing yards, but a decent number of TDs thrown with a well above average ratio and a mid 60s completion percentage. In fact, 2023 saw Wilson's third highest season completion percentage of his career at 66.4%.

    The Denver QBs amassed a high score in the Rating category (5th) and were 4th in ratio, combining those with low scores in yards thrown and overall total passes thrown.

19) Philadelphia Eagles - (187 points, category average score of 17)

     There has been a lot of speculation about Jalen Hurt's health last year, although he was healthy enough to start all 17 games and throw 95% of the Eagles' passes, with Marcus Mariota getting about a game's worth of throws in, spread across three appearances. 

     Basically, Interceptions are the story here, with Hurts throwing the third most of them in 2023, which also killed the ratio score. After a 10-1 start (with the last two of those wins over Kansas City and Buffalo in consecutive weeks), Philadelphia looked like an NFL juggernaut and Super Bowl favorite. However, they followed that with a 1-5 skid to close out the regular season (including losses to the moribund Giants and Cardinals and the merely mediocre Seahawks), costing them a division title. That was followed by an ugly playoff blowout loss to Tampa and now nobody seems to know what is happening with the Eagles. 

     The weird thing is that 18 of Hurts' 23 TD passes came in that 10-1 start but 10 of the 15 INTs were there, also. What happened in the 1-5 end of the season is that relatively the same rate per game of INTs were being thrown, but with far fewer TD passes per game. And almost half of the season total of 15 INTs (7) were thrown in just 3 games and the Eagles were 2-1 in those games. Go figure.

20) Washington Commanders - (207 points, category average score of 18.82)

      Yes, they are the next team up, but that 20-point difference between the Philly's overall score versus Washington's equals an almost two whole points lower across each category on average. Washington was never going to be good, but at one point the team was 4-5 on the season. And then they lost eight straight to close out 2023.

     There were some positives for Sam Howell, who started all 17 games. He threw for almost 4000 yards. But he also threw more passes than any QB in the league, so his yards per attempt and completion numbers were low. But the big sticking point here was the Interceptions. Howell threw 21 of those, matching his TD total. Jacoby Brissett "saved"
 the ratio by throwing 3 TDs and no interceptions in about a game's worth of action off the bench in 3 games. Not that it would have helped Washington much, but they might have finished more competitively with Brissett starting. Ultimately none of it really makes any difference for the upcoming season as Brissett signed with New England and Howell was traded to Seattle. 2024 will see Jake Fromm and whichever QB the Commanders draft behind center. 

21) Indianapolis Colts - (208.5 points, category average score of 18.95)

    Draft "project" Anthony Richardson was the prospective starter in his rookie season but injuries sidelined him for all but his 4 starts, two of which he left early. Thus, Gardner Minshew became the starter for the bulk of the season and the Colts finished a respectable 9-8. Now the ridiculous thing about that is that they were 9-8 in 2021 with Carson Wentz at QB, and he had a better year that season than any Indy QB since. In reward, they ran him straight out of town and ended up in this mess in the first place. I feel that the Colts would have been better off in the long run had they just kept Wentz. His 2021 season was really pretty good. 

Ultimately, the Colts faced the exact same week 17 conundrum in 2023 that they did in 2021, which was win that game and you are in. Both seasons ended with a loss, with that final game in '21 being Wentz's worst of the season, which seemed to be the impetus to jettison him after that single season as the Colts' starter. So, basically, the Colts have tread water for 3 years, QB wise. 

     Basically, Indianapolis were perhaps as consistent in their category scores as any team in the league. In all but 4 categories, the finished with a score below 20, with the lowest being 27th in the league in completion percentage. Passing yards were just outside that 20th place score at 19, as well. As a team, only 10 Interceptions were thrown (tied for 7th lowest in the league) by the Colts, which also elevated the ratio to the middle of the pack in the NFL. In other words, their final ranking of #21 was quite honestly earned as most of their scores were close on one side or the other of that number.

     Oh, and for the record, Minshew signed a free agent contract with the Raiders and may end up as their starter while Carson Wentz still can't find a job in the NFL. Ridiculous.

The We Need A New QB Tier: 211 points and up 

22) Cleveland Browns - (237.5 points, category average score of 21.59)

    Way back at the start of this analysis, I spoke a bit about the unique QB situation in Cleveland last season. Five starters, with Deshaun Watson getting the most starts but Joe Flacco passing for the most yards, with a whopping average of 323 yards passing per game! With all of that said, Deshaun Watson is THE starter in Cleveland. You do not pay anyone that much guaranteed money just to bench them. And while he has not been good in Cleveland, he is still young and may re-find his form. After all, this is a guy who has played a total of 12 games in the last two seasons after sitting out a year and a half in suspension. Which means that this tier is really not named correctly, as far as the Browns are concerned. They have the QB...they just need him to play more like who he was 3 or 4 years ago.

     Cleveland threw the 5th most passes in the league and had the league's worst completion percentage at 56.9%. That would have been acceptable in 1993 but not in 2023. So, as form follows function, the yards per attempt was also low, but the yards per completion numbers were at a healthy 8th place. Also on the very low end was Interceptions (the 2nd MOST in the league) and rating, also at the 2nd worst. This team did NOT win because of the QB play, but if they can get Deshaun Watson back to even 85% of his former self, they have to be a Super Bowl contender.

23) Tennessee Titans - (246 points, category average score of 22.36)

     The Titans QB situation in 2023 was in flux. Surprisingly, Ryan Tannehill has only been a full-time starter in 6 of his eleven NFL seasons. And despite being a pretty solid starter, he seems to fall out of favor quickly. His first demotion in Miami came after two seasons in which he averaged 4126 yards passing (258 yards per game) with a 64.2% completion percentage, 26 TDs and 12 INTs. But the TEAM was 14-18 during those two seasons, so, obviously, the QB was the problem!

     Mike Vrabel's Titans offense has always relied heavily on the run game, with Derrick Henry being the main man and relying on the passing game to provide complimentary offense to the tune of around 210 - 230 yards passing per game. So, Tannehill's numbers don't look so hot, but he provided the team what they wanted within the confines of the structure of the offense. Sure, that sounds like game management, but that is a good QB skill to have. Tannehill was still in the 3800 yards per season range with a better than 65% completion rate during his last two seasons as a full-time starter. The only noticeable drop-off was going from 33 TD/7INTs in 2020 to 21 TD/14INTs in 2021. And he was on that passing pace in 2022, except he was out injured for 5 games, although the last three of those smacked of an injury in name only to effectively bench a starter when the season seems to be going nowhere. 

     Tannehill started 2023 very inconsistent and at that point, the Titans had decided that 2nd-year man Malik Willis wasn't the answer, so they turned to 2023 draft pick Will Levis. Levis did play marginally better than Tannehill and he is the projected starter for 2024, as Tannehill is a free agent and the only QB signing the Titans have made is for Mason Rudolph. The overall Titans numbers reflect all of this uncertainty: Most of the categories were in the mid to high 20s, with only total INTs (11th best) and Yards per attempt and per completion being in the top half of the league. Those last two numbers correctly reflect the Titans league's worst number of completions and near the bottom of the league number of passes thrown.

24) Atlanta Falcons - (250 points, category average score of 22.73)

     In the interest of full disclosure, I am an Atlanta Falcons fan for life. I was born in Atlanta in 1966, the same year that the Braves and Falcons franchises started in Atlanta. That said, I felt very optimistic going into last year with Desmond Ridder starting and Taylor Heinicke as a backup. I didn't think either was great, but I have always had a soft spot for Heinicke and thought Ridder might be okay. Plus, add a weak division into the mix and I felt that Atlanta was ready for a breakout year. 

    Nope! The defense was pretty great (first time in a LONG time for that in Atlanta!) but Ridder turned out to be a turnover machine, not only throwing 12 INTs in 13 starts but also fumbling 12 times, with 8 fumbles lost, for a total of 20 turnovers for Ridder alone. And the turnovers were what ultimately doomed Ridder and the Falcons in 2023. I think that Ridder still might be a decent QB if he can just learn to protect the ball. The entirety of his career equals exactly one season of starts (17) with 3544 yards passing and a 64% completion rate. Not great, but workable.

     The only positive stat category was yards per completion (7th in the league), with yards per attempt at 14.5 points. Those were indicative of Ridder's surprising accuracy on long passes and the team's third-fewest completions in the league. Otherwise, every category was below 21st in the NFL. What all of this adds up to is that Ridder is gone, traded to the Cardinals and that the Falcons made the biggest QB free agent signing of the offseason, Kirk Cousins.

25) Pittsburgh Steelers - (250 points, category average score of 22.73)

     To make a comparison, the Steeler's 3 QBs, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky, only threw 9 INTs and only lost 2 fumbles. That one stat may explain more than any other how Pittsburgh managed to finish 10-7 and in the playoffs versus how Atlanta finished 7-10 and out. The weird connection is that fired Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will spend 2024 as the Steeler's new Offensive Coordinator. Those 9 INTs thrown were tied for 5th best in the NFL and that was the only category score above 20 for Pittsburgh.

     And, much like the Falcons, big QB changes came to Pittsburgh. Mason Rudolph, who was really pretty good in his three starts, signed with Tennessee to backup/push Will Levis. Mitch Trubisky signed to backup Josh Allen in Buffalo and Kenny Pickett was traded to Philadelphia. In comes two potential starters, Russell Wilson, who signed for chump change after Denver cut him and Justin Fields, who was traded from Chicago to make room for the Bears to draft a new QB, most likely Caleb Williams and reset their clock.

26) Arizona Cardinals - (254 points, category average score of 23.09)

     Another QB quandary team, in the sense of the question as to whether Kyler Murray is the answer at QB. At least in the terms of fans and pundits. But if you look at him statistically, Kyler Murray is pretty good. Maybe not as good as how he is paid, but, truthfully, his biggest drawback as a QB is merely staying on the field. He started all 32 games in his first two seasons. But over the subsequent 3 years, he has missed a season's worth of games...2 in his 3rd year, 6 the next and 9 in 2023. 

      Basically, the Cardinals QB room didn't look terrible, but the overall numbers were all 19th place or lower, and when you consider that includes attempts, there wasn't much happening with Arizona's passing offense. It even helps explain why their only number above league average was INTs, at 15th. It certainly didn't help that Clayton Tune threw 2 interceptions in 20 attempts. That lowered the ratio from what would have been 1.8-1 down to 1.5-1, which dropped them from 15th place down to a tie for 20th. And ten INTs versus 12 also changed that score from a respectable tied for 7th down to 15th. Take that total of 13 points off the total score and they would have been at number 22 overall, right after Cleveland. Not a huge bump up, but definitely better.

     Murray's health is the key. If he had played all 17 games with the exact same success rate, his numbers, extrapolated, would have raised the yardage and yards per game categories 4 spots, the completion rate 7 spots, TDs and INTs would have both been up 4 spots, too. Not huge but looking a little more palatable overall, than 26th out of 32 teams.

27) Las Vegas Raiders - (266 points, category average score of 24.18)

     The Raiders were very consistent. Consistently mediocre to bad in terms of QB performance. I, for one, was a bit surprised. I've always thought that Jimmy Garoppolo was a pretty good QB, almost on par with the guy he replaced, Derek Carr. But Garoppolo started out inconsistent, got injured, and then came back and had a poor game and the starting duties were turned over to Aidan O'Connell for the rest of the year. And to be fair, O'Connell was really the better QB, but that isn't saying much here. 

     The Raiders' 8-9 record looks okay, but it was very specious, at best. They beat the moribund Broncos twice, went 1-1 against the 5-win Chargers, beat the Packers early, when they had a 1-3 record and beat the terrible Patriots, Jets and Giants. They did win late in the season at Kansas City, but they also lost to the 7-10 Bears and lost a 3-0 barnburner to Minnesota. Needless to say, those eight wins weren't meaningless, but they meant more to the defense and team morale than they did to anything else.

    Collectively, all of the Raiders' category scores fell between 20 and 28. And that paltry 27th place ratio score was actually AIDED by WR Jakobi Meyers throwing a TD pass in his 3 attempts. So, all in all, not good. Which is why Garoppolo was let go (he signed with the Rams to back up Stafford) and Gardner Minshew was brought in on a two-year deal to be the Raiders' starter for 2024 and likely to groom his future replacement when that guy is drafted this year or next. 

28) New York Giants - (269 points, category average score of 24.45)

     Weirdly enough, as I noted above about who the Raiders beat in 2023, four of the teams mentioned (the Bears, Jets, Patriots, and starting HERE, the NY Giants) are in the bottom five of this essay, 

     The Giants had a surprising resurgence in 2022, finishing 9-7-1 and winning a first-round playoff game. The problem for them was that came in the last year of Daniel Jones' rookie contract. While Jones had never been great, for a guy starting almost from day one of his career, he had been decent. With no prospect of a draft pick high enough (barring a trade-up to a better spot) to restart the clock with a new rookie QB who would be better, the Giants re-signed Jones to a contract that was probably a bit too lucrative for what he had produced so far. Some of the fallout of that decision may have also been the decision not to re-sign Saquon Barkley THIS offseason.

     And then 2023 hit with such high hopes and Jones and the team completely failed. And, truth be told, injury or not, Jones was probably had the WORST season, statistically, of the three QBs (Jones, Tyrod Taylor and the irrepressible Tommy DeVito) who started Giants' games last season. That QB room, collectively, only had 2 categories that scored higher than 22nd place, which were completion percentage and INTs thrown, with the yards and yards per game stats falling into the bottom 3 of the league on the low end of things. 

     2024 will start again with Jones as the starter, backed up by newly signed Drew Lock, who replaces Tyrod Taylor, who moved across town to the Jets.

29) Chicago Bears - (271 points, category average score of 24.64)

     The Bears were definitely a tale of two QBs. Justin Fields started 13 games and came out in the middle of one of those 13. Tyson Bagent played about 4 and a half games, with 4 starts. The two QBs played the same offense very differently. Whereas Tyler Huntley in Baltimore backs up Lamar Jackson but plays a similar style of game, Tyson Bagent is a far more conventional QB while Fields is much more of a Lamar Jackson mold. Therefore, the Bears offense played a very different style dependent on who lines up behind center. 

     Anyone who has read me before knows that I am a fan of mathematical extrapolation. If you extrapolate Fields' numbers (which, by virtue of being a larger sample is a better sample) and compare them to the smaller sample of Bagent's work, you find that Tyson simply passes the ball more, to the tune of an extrapolated 37 more completions over a season with 47 more attempts. Which actually isn't that much more, truthfully, but would add up to around a game to two games worth of passing stats. Fields' passing yards would be higher in the fewer attempts, with Bagent's completion percentage a full four points higher, nearer to league average at 65.7%. 

     Where Bagent REALLY hurt the numbers was with interceptions. In a third of the number of games, he threw two thirds the number of interceptions that Fields threw. Fields' ratio was 1.77 to 1, which would put him right in the middle of the league. Adding in Bagent's 6 INTs (against his 3 TDs) lowers that ratio 8 places, to 24th. As a whole, the team had only one category score above 20, which was Yards per completion, tied for 18th. You can possibly thanks to their almost league worst 321 completions. Where that leaves everything with the Bears is that Fields was traded to Pittsburgh with one year left on his rookie deal so that Da Bearss can draft Caleb Williams with the first pick. Nathan Peterman was signed as the presumptive backup to Williams with Bagent remaining in the team's fold.

30) Carolina Panthers - (282 points, category average score of 25.64)

     The obvious problem here is the normal one for 1st time rookie NFL starting QBs...accuracy. There were only two other NFL teams with a lower completion percentage than the 59.7% that was amassed in Bryce Young's 16 starts and Andy Dalton's one start. On the other, positive side of that accuracy coin, Carolina only threw 10 INTs (tied for 7th in the league) in their 586 attempts (12th in the league). So, there is something to work with, unless you consider that maybe Young is SO inaccurate that even the DBs can't get to the ball! 

    I think that you would obviously pick C. J. Stroud with number one if you could re-do the 2023 draft. But...I feel that the Texans were also a much better situation for a rookie QB and that Young could still be great if things can get turned around with the Panthers. In this era of sports talk punditry, where a single year can falsely paint a negative color on everyone's perceptions of a career, I wouldn't sleep on potential future success for Bryce Young. 

     Despite the two positive numbers above, with the exception of two other scores (completions and ratio, both 23rd place) all of the other scores were in the bottom 3 spots in the league. 

31) New York Jets - (296 points, category average score of 26.9)

      This was to be Aaron Rodgers. Instead, after 4 plays, it was Zach Wilson, Trevor Semian and Tim Boyle. And the results show. 2023 was actually Wilson's BEST season as a starter. He broke 60% for a completion rate for the first time and almost averaged 200 yards passing per game. Plus, for the first time, he threw more TD passes than Interceptions. That this was his best season, and he was the team's best QB in 2023, you can see why the Jets opted to get Rodgers in the first place. 

      Zach Wilson remains, while Semian remains an unsigned free agent and Tyrod Taylor was signed to ostensibly back up Rodgers, relegating Wilson to third string status. That the Jets threw the 10th most passes in the league last year but had the fewest TD passes kind of tells the story. Along with the 10th most passes thrown, they also completed the 18th most in the league, thus the paltry 59.2% completion rate, which made the Jets only one of 3 teams in the league to fall below 60%. Along with the aforementioned categories, their 15 INTs put them at 22nd in the league. All of the other 8 category scores were in the bottom 3 in the league.

32) New England Patriots - (296.5 points, category average score of 26.95)

     Last place by a half of a point. Truthfully, I don't think Mac Jones is actually that bad of a QB. He was kind of ruined by an untenable situation. As a rookie, he made the Pro Bowl and was on the All-Rookie team and the Patriots were 10-7 and in the playoffs. During the second chaotic year, without a real offensive coordinator, he was injured and out for 3 games. In addition, his INT rate went up and TDs went down, so the ratio dropped, although otherwise he was pretty much the same player as he was in 2021. But there was a drop-off and that continued into 2023. And while many people thought that Bailey Zappe was a satisfactory replacement in 2022, he was anything but in '23. And much of that might be attributable to Bill Belichick essentially phoning it in during a season that he rightly expected to be his last in New England.

      The Patriots as a team did not finish last in the league in any statistical category, but their BEST score was a tie for 20th. It was just enough for them to squeak by as the worst QB room in the league. The fallout from the season is that Bill Belichick was fired, in not so many words and hasn't found a new team to coach, which means he is likely done as an NFL head coach. Zappe remains, likely as the 3rd string QB. The "always better than you think he is" Jacoby Brissett was signed and will likely tutor and then backup whichever drafted QB the Patriots get.

     And Mac Jones, you ask? He was traded to Jacksonville, where he will wield the clipboard for Trevor Lawrence for at least a season. Then, after his rookie contract expires, he will likely start the journeyman portion of his career, maybe occasionally getting a contract to start for a franchise that is QB poor in the future.

A look ahead to 2024

     Too many changes than you can count, almost! Fully one quarter of the league will have a new starting QB next season. 

     The teams definitely making a QB change would be:

      Minnesota - signed and will likely start Sam Darnold (still under 27!) or a draft pick (J.J McCarthy?) maybe.  

     Denver - Jarret Stidham and Ben DiNucci are under contract. Ryan Tannehill is the only starter quality QB that remains unsigned, and the Broncos likely won't sign him. Which means Stidham and/or a draft pick for what looks increasingly like a "tank" year in Denver.

     Washington - Marcus Mariota was signed from Philadelphia and Jake Fromm was already here, but Washington's 2024 starter will most likely be the 2nd pick in the upcoming draft, who will, in all probability, be Drake Maye. Or Jayden Daniels. Whoever it will be, the team around them looks to be a little bit better overall.

     Atlanta - Obviously, Kirk Cousins will be the starter, with Taylor Heinecke on board for a 2nd year as the backup. Desmond Ridder was traded to Arizona to back up Kyler Murray.

     Pittsburgh - This QB story will be "must see TV" this fall. Mitch Trubisky signed to back up Joh Allen in Buffalo, while Kyle Allen signed WITH Pittsburgh from Buffalo, so those two essentially swapped. Mason Rudolph signed with Tennessee, but obviously the huge news here was first signing, for the league veteran minimum, last year's starter in Denver, Russell Wilson, who was cut by the Broncos. Then, it became even more intriguing as Pittsburgh traded for Justin Fields from Chicago. Who is going to start? Your guess is as good as mine, but my gut says that Wilson starts the season at #1 but may not finish there.

     Las Vegas - Aidan O'Connell, who started the bulk of Raiders' games last year, remains on board. Jimmy Garappolo was released after one season and signed to back up Matt Stafford in LA. Coming in to start is Gardner Minshew, whose largely successful season in Indianapolis, starting 13 games for the injured Anthony Richardson, garnered (or would it be gardnered?) him a 2 year, $25 million contract with Vegas.

     Chicago - it was detailed above how Justin Fields was traded to Pittsburgh to make room for taking Caleb Williams with the first pick of the draft. He will be the starter. Tyson Bagent remains the backup, with Nathan Peterman signing with New Orleans to back up Derek Carr.

     New England - Mac Jones is gone, traded to Jacksonville to backup Trevor Lawrence. Jacoby Brissett (who is ALWAYS better than you think he is) was signed as the bridge starter to whomever the Patriots draft at #3, likely Jayden Daniels. Bailey Zappe sticks around in case it all goes to hell like it did last year, 

     In addition to those 8 teams, four more will be having a "new" starter, in a sense. Will Levis has supplanted Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, but that started mid-season last year. Aaron Rodgers will be the starter for the New York Jets, just as he was for the first four plays last season. Hopefully for them, he will last a little longer in 2024. Anthony Richardson will be the starter in Indianapolis, after missing most of 2023 due to injury in his rookie season. And, lastly, the same situation applies in Cleveland, where they are hoping they will finally be getting a full and productive season from Deshaun Watson.